Bitcoin is recovering, but the market is still sharp with short -term holders near Breakeven

Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a technical critical zone that is controlled by holders in the short term despite his recovery to almost $ 98,000, which has facilitated financial stress in the network, according to a May 7 May 7 report By Glassnode.

The report emphasized that recent market behavior indicates an improved capital inflow and investor sentiment. Moreover, it warned that the current price structure remains vulnerable if the most important support levels fail.

Bitcoin rose to $ 97,900 last week and marked the highest level for two months. The relocation temporarily illuminated underwater positions, in which more than 3 million BTC returned to a profitable state after its correction to a low of around $ 74,000 in April.

However, the market stays in a decision phase while this wait to see if Bitcoin can consolidate above the most important cost-based levels, such as the 111-day advancing average and the price realized in the short term.

The report noted that the recent rally has pushed the Bitcoin Cap realized to a record high of $ 889 billion, an increase of 2.1% in the past month. Realized CAP is a metric that measures cumulative capital inflow on the basis of the acquisition price, which suggests that more value arrives the network.

At the same time, the realized profits are more than $ 1 billion a day, which indicates a strong question that is able to absorb profit-taking from recent buyers.

According to CryptoSlate data, Bitcoin acted from $ 96,844 from the moment of the press, an increase of 2.64% in the last 24 hours.

Short-term holders key as the ETF question recovers

Although the number of coins that is kept by loss has fallen to 1.9 million BTC, recent buyers still represent most of those companies. Glassnode reported that holders in the short term (STHs) concentrate 83% of the coins in non-realized loss, many of whom have entered the market above $ 96,000.

These investors were previously under increased stress, with non -realized losses that violate alarming levels earlier this year. That stress has since disappeared, with the STH not -realized loss statistics returning to neutral territory, suggesting that most of these addresses are closer to Breakeven.

This transition has also influenced spending behavior, with STHs increasingly realizing profits instead of losing. According to the report, this shift can mark a pivot point, indicating that the cohort regains confidence and selectively the risk arises.

Investor activity has also been picked up widely. Combined profit and loss volumes have reached $ 1 billion a day, a level that was only exceeded for 15% of the trade sessions in this cycle.

The increase indicates renewed market involvement, but the report warned that much of this behavior can still be reactive to price movements in the short term instead of driven by long -term conviction.

Institutional interest, which had decreased in recent months, seems to return. US Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have included more than $ 4.6 billion in the inflow over the past two weeks, so that the 70,000 BTC is compensated in the net outcomes registered during the previous drawing.

Total assets that are managed within US ETFs now amount to 1,171 million BTC, only 11,000 BTC short of all time earlier this year.

According to the report, the restoration of the ETF question is a constructive signal that institutional allocers start to rotate again in Bitcoin after a period of caution. The inflow coincides with the broader increase in the market liquidity and capital implementation on the chain.

Volatility possible too expensive

Despite the rally and renewed capital movement, volatility expectations in derivatives markets are falling. A week and one of a month on the money implicit volatility are now at their lowest since July 2024, with longer dated contracts that have a similar compression.

Implicit volatility premiums on contracts that end in May to March 2026 are all moving down, with even long -term options in relatively low expectations for price fluctuations.

The report considered this modest volatility regime as a potential counter-indicator, especially in view of the vicinity of the market to dense cost-based-based clusters between $ 94,000 and $ 96,000. The realized nutritional density meter, which measures the acquisition volume of BTC near the current price, has increased meaningfully.

This concentration means that even small price fluctuations may have reinforced effects on the behavior of investors, especially among those who bought during the December -Februari consolidation range.

Although the recent rally has improved network -wide profitability and market structure, Bitcoin’s position in the vicinity of critical support and resistance levels means that further profit is not guaranteed. It will test current market strength if BTC is unable to retain the cost basis in the short term and advanced averages.

State in this article