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In a recently released investor remarkone of the oldest American investment banks HC Wainwright & Co. – founded in 1868 – predicts a substantial increase in the Bitcoin price. According to the note, the institution has revised its previous Bitcoin price target for the end of 2025 from $145,000 to $225,000, supported by a confluence of historical trends, macroeconomic indicators and emerging regulatory and institutional factors.
“We estimate that BTC will reach a cycle high of $225,000 by YE2025,” the company said, citing both market cycles and the potential for a more supportive regulatory landscape for digital assets in the United States in 2025 under a new administration.
Why Bitcoin Could Reach $225,000 by the End of the Year
HC Wainwright’s analysis highlights several crucial forces propelling Bitcoin’s growth trajectory. A key catalyst is the greater availability of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, a development that could unlock new waves of institutional capital. The company also cites “accelerating adoption by institutional investors and corporations” as a key contributor to its bullish outlook.
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Furthermore, the investment bank’s models assume an overall market environment will improve in tandem with global liquidity and that any regulatory overhang will diminish. HC Wainwright notes that the forecast is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, especially as measured by the M2 money supply, which has been on a downward trend since October.
Although HC Wainwright expected a high six-figure price by 2025, he acknowledged that Bitcoin’s path to $225,000 is unlikely to be a smooth ride. In the report, the bank warned: “~20-30% price drops during bull markets are not uncommon […] We estimate that BTC could return to the mid-$70,000s in early 1Q25 before resuming its uptrend.”
They attribute this potential pullback to Bitcoin’s historical volatility and its correlation with global liquidity trends.
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If Bitcoin reaches $225,000 per coin, HC Wainwright expects a total Bitcoin market cap of around $4.5 trillion – about 25% of gold’s current market cap of $18 trillion. This scenario translates into a 113% increase from current levels. However, the note adds a striking scenario that has not yet been included in the core forecast:
“Our new 2025 price target does not take into account the potential for the US government to officially adopt BTC as a treasury reserve at the federal level next year. If implemented, we believe it is likely that BTC could significantly exceed our base price target.”
The institute’s analysis also extends to the broader crypto market. Historically, Bitcoin’s dominance (its share of the total cryptocurrency market cap) tends to decline during market peaks, dropping to the low 40% range near the last bull cycle peak in November 2021.
Looking ahead, HC Wainwright expects Bitcoin’s dominance to decline to 45% by the end of 2025, compared to around 56% currently. Under that assumption, the company sees the total crypto market growing from $3.6 trillion today to around $10 trillion by the end of 2025.
HC Wainwright’s coverage universe of publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies will benefit from the expected price increase. “If our forecasts are correct, there is potential for significant upward revisions to our coverage universe estimates over the course of next year.”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $96,221.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com