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- Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high in the fourth quarter with a rally driven by multiple catalysts.
- However, profit-taking activities could continue to suppress the short-term rally.
Bitcoin [BTC] was trading at $63,663 at the time of writing, after gaining 8% in the past seven days. As the final quarter of the year approaches, speculation is rife that the largest cryptocurrency could be on track to create a new all-time high.
In his weekly report 10x Research outlined three key factors that could see Bitcoin surpass $73,000 in the coming months.
The first is the US presidential election that will take place on November 5. This political event could create positive momentum in the market. The report also mentions the distributions to FTX creditors as another possible catalyst for Bitcoin’s rally, as the process will coincide with a bull market. The report stated:
“FTX creditors are expected to pay out $16 billion to customers between December 2024 and March 2025, with the market likely to lead the way in this expectation. We expect $5 to $8 billion to flow back into the crypto space.”
Third, MicroStrategy did raised more money to finance his Bitcoin purchases. This increase could cause a surge in demand for Bitcoin.
But amid this speculation, are there other macro factors and on-chain data that support a bull run?
The dollar index is at a low point
The US dollar index (DXY) is showing a downward trend. At the time of writing, this index was at 101 and has been at a low of $100-$101 since August.
(Source: MarketWatch)
The DXY measures the strength of the US dollar against other top global currencies. A decline in this index indicates a weakening dollar, which in turn fuels positive sentiment around Bitcoin.
Historically, Bitcoin often makes gains when the DXY weakens. Therefore, if the DXY falls below 100, Bitcoin could become attractive as an inflation hedge.
Bitcoin exchange inflow
Data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin exchange inflows remained subdued over the weekend after a period of intense profit-taking.
Source: CryptoQuant
This decline suggests that traders could gain confidence in Bitcoin’s rally and its ability to sustain prices above $60,000.
However, it is important to note that weekends are typically associated with low trading volumes. To confirm that profit-taking activity has subsided, traders should pay attention to the shift in flow data during the week.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price forecast 2024–2025
Furthermore, the estimated Bitcoin leverage ratio has increased and is currently at its highest level since the beginning of the year.
A high leverage ratio typically reflects growing bullish sentiment as traders increase their margin positions on BTC. However, a rise in this measure could also indicate coming volatility.
Source: CryptoQuant