- Bitcoin approached the crucial $70,000 mark on July 29, where the price was previously rejected.
- Strong technical indicators and renewed sentiment fueled additional gains ahead of the July month-end close.
Bitcoin [BTC] is off to a strong start this week after a strong performance on July 29 that pushed prices towards $70,000.
The flagship crypto rose sharply above $69,000 and posted a seven-week high of $69,851, per CoinMarketCap facts. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading just -5.76% below its all-time high in March of $73,750.
Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index continued to hover in the ‘Greed’ zone, reaching 74/100 at the time of writing – up 22 points since July 15.
Source: Alternative.me
After the spirited battle that provided last-minute relief to the bulls, Bitcoin posted a positive, if meager, return of 0.22% over the past week.
So far this month, the leading crypto has posted a monthly gain of 9.2% according to Coinglass data.
Renewed positive sentiment
Market information platform Santiment noticed that Bitcoin’s price rebound over the past three weeks has made speculators even more optimistic than at the beginning of the month.
Source: Santiment
The latest upward momentum comes thanks to the Bitcoin 2024 conference, which concluded on July 27 in Nashville.
Presidential candidates Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spoke highly of cryptocurrencies and both promised to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the US
Macro influences
The bigger macro picture favors risky assets including cryptocurrencies, but traders should keep an eye on macro events this week, which could lead to sudden volatility.
Federal policymakers are expected to announce an interest rate decision after the expected July 31 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with expectations pointing to interest rates remaining unchanged.
The FOMC decision will be critical in shaping the month-end close for Bitcoin, which has historically delivered positive returns in July.
10X Research wrote in a July 28 research post,
“While we expect an eventual breakout, Bitcoin will likely need ‘macro’ help in the form of expected Fed rate cuts or another dose of lower inflation. […] The FOMC meeting on July 31 and the US CPI report on August 14 will be critical.”
This week also marks the end of 100 days since the fourth Bitcoin halving, which saw block mining rewards reduced from 6.25 BTC on April 20 to 3.125 BTC.
Halvings are considered bullish, and data from previous cycles shows that prices start to accelerate after about 100 days.
BTC/USDT technical analysis
Bitcoin saw selling near its intraday high of $69,850, as indicated by the long candle wicks on the hourly chart.
Source: TradingView
Clearing the hurdle at $70,000 would bring the $72,000 level into view, which pseudonymous futures trader Satoshi Flipper said was “programmed” in an X (formerly Twitter) post on July 29.
The analyst referred to a bullish descending channel on the daily chart.
Source: X
A rising wedge on the daily chart also indicates a potential rally towards $74,000, where the extrapolated pattern’s trendlines converge.
Source: TradingView
In contrast, a breakdown below the lower wedge trendline would trigger a correction towards $66,000.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price forecast 2024-25
On the larger time frame, BTC/USDT appears to be charting a new trend outside of a cup-and-handle chart pattern.
Source: X
A successful ‘breakout’ would propel Bitcoin towards $100,000.