The SEC has asked Ethereum ETF applicants to update their 19-b4 registrations, which sources say has led to more optimism around potential approvals.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said on May 20 that the SEC could reverse its expected stance and choose not to deny the pending applications. He quoted ETF Store President Nate Geraci, who claimed the SEC could adopt the 19-b4 listing rules while delaying its decision on S-1 registration statements.
James Seyffart added that he and Balchunas had heard from multiple sources and that several new documents should emerge in the coming days.
FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terret said her sources have done the same confirmed that the SEC has directed issuers to update 19b-4 filings. She previously said the case is “evolving in real time.”
Bloomberg odds at 75%
Balchunas and Seyffart updated their odds for a spot Ethereum ETF approval to 75% from their most recent predictions of 25% to 30%
Balchunas also noted that the issue has become an “increasingly political issue,” a topic that has been intensively discussed over the past week.
On May 15, Coinbase Research Analyst David Han suggested that the US election year could influence the SEC’s decision. At the time, Balchunas called Han’s statements a “risk-free PR move” and said his own predictions posed more risk to his reputation.
Bankless founder Ryan Sean Adams, who agreed that politics could have played a role in the approvals around the time of the Coinbase report, today backed Balchunas’ statements. He replied:
“This is what political pressure during election years can do.”
Some commentators remain pessimistic. Ron Hammond, executive director of the Blockchain Association, said on May 20 that many believe the SEC will deny applications based on political indicators and comments from issuers.
The first deadline is approaching
Deadlines are fast approaching. The SEC must decide on VanEck’s proposal for a spot ETH ETF on May 23, but can decide on multiple applications at the same time.
The prediction market Polymarket now suggests a 10% chance that a spot Ethereum ETF could be approved by the end of May, based on crypto-backed bets.
The latest developments coincide with the sudden price growth for ETH. Ethereum’s price has risen 20% in 24 hours, with the majority of these gains occurring within two hours of Balchunas’ announcement. The crypto market is up 6.7% in 24 hours, while Bitcoin is up 5.2%.
The report Bloomberg Analysts Revise ETH ETF’s Approval Odds to 75% Amid Rumors of SEC U-turn first appeared on CryptoSlate.