- BlacRock’s IBIT records net zero inflows for two days while total outflows increase.
- Bitwise exec claims that the price of BTC could reach $250,000 by the 2028 halving cycle.
BlackRock’s location for the first time since mid-January Bitcoin [BTC] ETF (IBIT) has not netted any daily inflows for the past two days.
During the same period, on April 24 and 25, cumulative flows were negative, with a total outflow of $338.2 million per SoSo value facts.
Bitcoin ETF inflows
This has spooked market watchers, while others shifted their focus to next week’s Hong Kong ETF debut and potential demand from other institutions such as Morgan Stanley.
But a pseudonymous market analyst, Kamikaze Fiat, has downplayed such prospects. noticing That,
“It took $12.5 billion in ETF inflows (and who knows how many native flows) to take BTC from $44,000 to $73,000.
Do you think Morgan Stanley can find that many new BTC buyers? Do you think the HK ETFs will have inflows of more than $200 million in the first month? I think the one below is crackpipe hopium.
Will the decline in BTC ETF inflows reverse?
US spot BTC ETF flows have seen a massive decline in the second quarter.
In the first quarter, the highest inflows occurred in February, worth $6 billion, followed by March with $4.6 billion. In January, $1.5 billion was raised as the market tried to get comfortable with the new products.
So far in April, second quarter ETF inflows amounted to $170 million as of April 24. Is the demand for BTC ETFs over?
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan doesn’t think so. In a weekly memo to investment professionals, Hougan asserted that more inflows are achievable in the coming months.
In support of his claims, part of Hougan’s statement read,
“I think they (US spot BTC ETFs) are just getting started. One reason for this: ETFs are still not widely available from national wire houses like Morgan Stanley or Merrill Lynch. In the meantime, institutions are still conducting their due diligence investigation. Both areas could represent important sources of demand in the long term.”
Furthermore, the Bitwise executive predicted that additional demand from central banks could come before the 2028 halving, highlighting that:
“I think they will start buying Bitcoin before the next halving. Like gold, Bitcoin is not debt money: an asset whose supply cannot be expanded through loans. It also cannot be seized by a foreign government the way government bonds can (and recently have been).”
In such a mainstream adoption scenario, Hougan predicts that Bitcoin could trade above $250,000 at the next halving in 2028.
How will crypto react to next week’s US Treasury move?
In the near term, Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX and Maelstrom CIO, believes a potential $1.4 trillion liquidity injection from the US Treasury could provide bullish momentum next week.
Pointing to three possible scenarios during the next refund announcement in the second quarter of 2024 by the US Treasury Department, Hayes noted,
“If any of these three options materialize (variable liquidity injections), expect a stock rally and, most importantly, a renewed acceleration of the #crypto bull market.”
Quarterly refund announcements are part of the Treasury Department’s policy changes, and markets tend to react broadly.
It will be interesting to see how the next announcement will affect Bitcoin in the summer.