Popular Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has lowered the possibility that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would deny the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF to 5%. This latest prediction comes as crypto enthusiasts around the world anticipate a wholesale approval of several Bitcoin spot ETF proposals by the SEC on Wednesday, January 10.
Why Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval Looks Almost Certain: Bloomberg Analysts Weigh In
In October, Eric Balchunas and fellow Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart predicted that there is a 90% chance that ARK Invest and 21 stocks would receive approval for their joint Bitcoin spot ETF offering on January 10, marking the final deadline for the SEC’s response to their filing.
However, in a recent one X message on January 6, Balchunas increased the probability of this green light to an astonishing 95%, after stating that there was only a 5% chance that the SEC would reject the ARK/21 ETF offer in the coming days.
Well said, although I’ll probably go with 5% at this point. But you have to leave a little window open for these things.
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 6, 2024
This new prediction is based on the improbability of all scenarios, which could represent a possible delay or non-approval of the ARK/21 shares Bitcoin spot ETF application. In an earlier X post on January 6, James Seyffart had listed these scenarios, starting with ARK/21 stock spontaneously withdrawing its ETF proposal from the SEC, which he said was highly unlikely.
Another scenario is that the SEC discovers new reasons to reject the launch of a cryptospot ETF, resulting in a protracted lawsuit between the US regulator and ARK/21Shares, a situation that Seyffart says the SEC would prefer to avoid, especially after the recent loud legal loss against grayscale investments.
The final event that, according to the Bloomberg analyst, could prevent the approval of the bid for the ARK/21 Shares ETF is a direct intervention by the US Presidency, another scenario that seems even remotely possible.
The D-Day is approaching
The significance of ARK/21 Shares’ joint bid into the Bitcoin spot ETF saga revolves around the final deadline for an SEC response, the first of all. It is now believed that the SEC will prefer to approve multiple Bitcoin spot ETF applications at once, regardless of their respective deadlines, in the same way it did with Ether futures ETFs in August.
This belief is supported by the discussions between the US regulator and several applicants in recent weeks, leading to changes in the respective proposals, hinting at the preparation of an upcoming approval.
At the time of writing, the set forecast date remains January 10, with crypto enthusiasts very excited about the potential bullish effects of a spot ETF on Bitcoin’s price over the year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to trade at $44,050 after rising 4.50% over the past week.
BTC trading at $44,038.02 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on Tradingview.com
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
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