- Long-term owners are expanding their holdings.
- One analyst opined that BTC may not react quickly to a potential ETF approval.
Despite Bitcoin [BTC] Lateral movement AMBCrypto learned that long-term holders are still accumulating. This revelation was made by the verified author of CryptoQuant, JA Maartunn, on X (formerly Twitter).
Let’s end the year with this graph
Long-term bondholders continue to pile on supply, repeatedly reaching new highs, which is a positive sign for the long-term prospects. pic.twitter.com/mCy6NsL3yb
— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) December 31, 2023
‘Condemnation’ is the name of the game
The rise was proof that those who have experienced the ups and downs of the market are optimistic about BTC’s price action. At the time of writing, Bitcoin changed hands at $42,485. This value represented a decline of 1.72% over the past seven days.
One reason these holders are bullish could be that 2024 is Bitcoin’s halving year.
Bitcoin’s half-life year is considered a major event on the crypto calendar. This is done by cutting the Bitcoin mining reward in half to reduce the number of coins entering the network.
When this happens, the demand for BTC increases thereafter.
Also, in previous cycles, the Bitcoin price reached a new All-Time High (ATH) months after the halving. So the sentiment surrounding the coin could be valid, especially since this year’s event is billed for April.
As a result of the recent incident, AMBCrypto checked the ratio between the long-term holder market value and the realized value (LTH-MVRV).
At the time of writing, Glassnode data showed that LTH MVRV increased from 0.74 to 2.0 between January 1, 2023 and December 31.
Source: Glassnode
The LTH-MVRV serves as a macro cycle indicator to assess the sentiment of long-term investors within a 155-day period. Historically, long-term investors turn bearish once the metric reaches a double-digit value of 10.
This was evident from the events of December 2017 and April 2021.
During both periods, long-term holders liquidated their holdings. This also caused a correction in the BTC price. Therefore, the LTH-MVRV means that HODLers are confident of bullish Bitcoin price action through most of the new year.
The future of BTC remains bright
Another metric worth considering is the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR). High values of the SSR indicate a low supply of stablecoins, indicating potential selling pressure and a price drop.
However, low values assign potential buying pressure and a possible price increase.
Looking at CryptoQuant’s data, the SSR had dropped to 12.31 in the last 30 days. This reading implies that the market is sufficiently armed to get BTC to a new ATH.
However, it is also worth noting that this may not happen anytime soon.
Source: Glassnode
Meanwhile, Gabor Gurbacs commented on Bitcoin’s short- and long-term prospects. Gurbacs, an advisor at US asset management firm VanEck, noted that the initial impact of spot ETF adoption could be minimal.
However, he advised players to check the history of gold as that would give an idea of Bitcoin’s long-term potential.
In my opinion, people tend to overestimate the initial impact of US Bitcoin ETFs. I think there might be a few hundred million dollars of (mostly recycled) money flowing.
In the long run, people tend to underestimate the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs. If history is any guide, gold is worth studying as a parallel. https://t.co/6vvkA9aC09
— Gabor Gurbacs (@gaborgurbacs) December 31, 2023
Realistic or not, here is the market cap of BTC in ETH terms
In his final post about X, the strategy advisor wrote:
“People tend to hype current events, but remain myopic about the big picture. Bitcoin forces its own capital market systems and products far beyond the ETF and that is not priced in. The question is not what BlackRock will acquire, but which Bitcoin company will be the next BlackRock.”
