Journalist
Posted:
- The current average cost base for Bitcoin was around $33,755.
- At the time of writing, BTC was trading around $25,700.
Many statistics have been used in attempts to predict when the Bitcoin bull run will begin. Nevertheless, a recent analysis suggests that this may not happen until a specific price range is reached.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Forecast 2023-24
Bitcoin average cost basis
A recent update of Ali charts showed that a historical pattern has been observed in Bitcoin’s bull runs, which are typically triggered when the price reaches a specific threshold based on certain metrics. According to the post, this threshold was typically when the price surpassed Bitcoin holders’ average cost base with a track record of six months to three years.
The chart highlighted in the post indicated that the current cost base for Bitcoin is around $33,755. The average cost basis is a crucial metric that indicates the average price at which Bitcoin holdings have accrued over a period of time. To calculate this, add up the total amount spent on the purchase of Bitcoin and then divide this figure by the total amount of BTC you own.
This metric is extremely important when assessing the profitability of a Bitcoin investment and guiding decisions related to buying or selling BTC. It naturally also focuses attention on the prevailing price development.
Comparison of the current BTC trend with the long-term cost basis
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $25,800 analyzed on a daily timeframe. There was a slight loss, but it remained below 1%.
Examination of historical price trends over the same time frame showed that the highest price it reached during the year was around $31,000. This observation suggested that so far this year, the price has failed to reach the cost base highlighted in the earlier post.
Source: TradingView
Moreover, it was clear that the declining price trend had caused the short moving average (yellow line) to move downwards. In addition, there was a possibility that a “death cross” would occur if the price continued on its downward trajectory.
Long-term synchronization of the Bitcoin MVRV with the current bear trend
Comparing Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) over different time frames, namely the 180-day, 365-day, and two-year periods yielded different results.
The 365-day MVRV indicated a profit potential of 4.2%. However, MVRV ratios at 180 days and two years showed losses. Specifically, the 180-day MVRV was about -8%, while the two-year MVRV was about -11%.
Source: Sentiment
– How much are 1.10.100 BTC worth today?
With the exception of the 180-day MVRV, these stats were in sync with the prevailing bearish trend in Bitcoin’s performance. They highlighted how the profitability in these numbers could serve as an indicator of an impending bull run.