- Nearly 70% of Americans believed that Bitcoin will hit its ATH in the next five years.
- 2/3 of respondents believed that the scarcity of Bitcoin could drive prices higher in the future.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, while celebrating victory in the hotly contested legal battle against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), did not mince words, calling the watchdog a “bully,” according to a recent Bloomberg article.
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However, the bitterness may not just be limited to Garlinghouse. US financial regulators have received a lot of flak from crypto market participants, with many citing recent actions as a concerted effort to halt the growth of digital assets.
Crypto activities scrutinized in the US
SEC initiated legal action against the two largest trading platforms in the world, Binance and Coinbase, for alleged violations of US securities laws. Apart from this, other entities such as crypto Kraken and stablecoin Binance exchange USD [BUSD] have faced a regulatory setback in 2023.
Decentralized finance activities (DeFi), emerging as a hot sector in the Web3 realm, have also come under SEC’s radar. Last week, the US Senate introduced a bill that will bring DeFi under the scope of anti-money laundering and economic sanctions.
As expected, the market reacted negatively to these developments, with the value of top assets immediately turning red. Investors fear the economic environment will become increasingly hostile to cryptos and blockchain-based services in the US, the industry’s global epicenter at the time of writing.
But despite the pessimism, the general public in America is still confident in the long-term prospects of cryptocurrencies.
The ‘crypto dream’ is alive
This is according to a recent study by CryptoVantagenearly 70% of Americans thought that Bitcoin [BTC] would return to its all-time high (ATH) of $69,000 over the next five years.
The survey was conducted exclusively among citizens who have previously traded cryptocurrencies, with the intention of analyzing factors that lead to crypto investments.
Source: CryptoVantage
Surprisingly, there was a handful of enthusiasts, about 23%, who believed that the King Coin itself will hit the ATH in 2023. While the optimism was remarkable, given the market’s momentum, it seemed far-fetched.
However, the respondents are not only betting big on BTC. Ethereum [ETH], the second-largest coin by market capitalization, was picked up as the crypto with the greatest chance of surpassing BTC in the next bull run. About 46% of people thought so.
Are people considering Bitcoin’s halving?
The research also delved into the public’s understanding of the factors that would ultimately determine crypto price movements.
A substantial 2/3 of the respondents chose “supply and demand” as the main reason for influencing market fluctuations. Considering that the all-important BTC halving event is less than a year away, the expectation holds value.
The supply of BTC is limited to 21 million and the coin is steadily moving towards scarcity. The four-year halving cuts miners’ block rewards in half and reduces the number of tokens in circulation. Historically, these events preceded bull markets.
The halving in July 2016 was followed by a 3x increase in the value of BTC over the next 12 months. Similarly, the last halving in May 2o20 saw the king coin explode by 500% the following year.
Source: CoinMarketCap
Global macroeconomic trends, including inflation and US monetary policy, were highlighted as another major factor influencing crypto prices.
We have already seen how countries fighting hyperinflation, such as Turkey, have resorted to cryptos, more specifically stablecoins. And with a high likelihood of the US Federal Reserve pausing its cycle of interest rate cuts amid cooling inflation, it means investments in risky assets could soon rise.
Source: CryptoVantage
But people were also concerned about the consequences of regulatory policy. About 36% of those surveyed believed that regulatory and policy decisions would have a major impact on crypto market movements.
Read Bitcoin [BTC] Price Forecast 2023-24
Let’s see what AI has to say
The sample size taken for the survey, about 1,000 people, is very much a matter of debate. But at the same time, it gives perspective on Americans’ awareness of trends and their confidence in virtual assets.
To add a touch of AI to things, we asked ChatGPT a question about the trends developing in the US in the face of growing regulatory scrutiny.
The bot, in its usual politically correct state, said that while some may be enchanted by Bitcoin’s safe haven narrative and stick around, others may adapt to comply with regulations.
Source: ChatGPT