XRP has reclaimed key price levels and is now testing resistance as the market builds towards what appears to be a decisive move. The price is accelerating – from $1.41 at the time of the data snapshot to $1.45 shortly afterwards – and the momentum is turning heads. But an analysis from XWIN Research Japan argues that the force behind this move is different from what has driven XRP rallies in the past, and that difference is worth understanding.
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The report identifies what it describes as a rare structural divergence. Currency speculation dominates most crypto markets. Trading volumes on centralized exchanges are typically 10x, 20x, sometimes 50x higher than the actual on-chain utilities. The assumption baked into most crypto price analysis is that speculation is the driver and real-world usage is the passenger.
For XRP, that ratio has compressed to 1.75. The on-chain settlement volume is 291 million XRP. The total speculative volume is 510 million. The gap between the casino and the infrastructure has virtually disappeared. And in the context of how crypto markets normally work, that’s really unusual.
What it suggests is that the price is not being driven by traders chasing momentum. It is drawn by adoption. The network is used on a scale that almost matches the volume traded around it – and according to the analysis, that changes everything about what the current price level means.
The network is active. The stock exchanges are almost empty
The supportive one facts behind the speculation-to-utility ratio removes any ambiguity about what is driving the current XRP movement. Active addresses on the Real accounts perform real transactions.
Then there’s the Binance inflow figure, the most striking data point in the entire report. While 291 million XRP was settled on the blockchain – institutional transfers, OTC transactions, custody movements – only 1.36 million XRP entered Binance. In markets where foreign exchange inflows typically follow or exceed activity in the chain, this relationship is now almost reversed. The vast majority of XRP moving through the network doesn’t get anywhere near the sell side.
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That is the supply shock that the analysis has been working towards. When coins are used for legitimate settlement and custody instead of being deposited on exchanges to be sold, the available liquid supply shrinks with each transaction. Selling pressure cannot come from coins that never arrive on exchanges.
The conclusion of the report is direct: at $1.41, the price has not yet reached the level described by the on-chain data. The adjustment, the report states, is still in its early stages – and the network is doing all the work that makes this inevitable.
XRP stabilizes below key resistance
XRP’s higher timeframe structure shows that the market is still in a corrective phase but is starting to stabilize after a prolonged decline. After peaking above $3.50 in mid-2025, the price entered a sustained downtrend defined by consistent lower highs and a breakdown below the 100 and 200 day moving averages. That trend accelerated in early 2026, culminating in a sharp sell-off that briefly pushed XRP towards the $1.20 region, accompanied by a spike in volume that signals capitulation.
Since then, the price has shifted to a consolidation range between around $1.30 and $1.50. This range is just below the 200-day moving average, which continues to decline and acts as a key macro resistance level. The 50-day moving average has leveled off and is starting to curl upward, reflecting improving near-term momentum, but without yet confirming a structural reversal.
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Volume has steadily declined after the capitulation, indicating reduced participation and a wait-and-see attitude in the market. The repeated defense of the $1.30 area points to emerging demand, while the inability to break above $1.50 points to continued overhead supply.
This compression usually precedes expansion. A confirmed break above $1.50-$1.60 would signal recovery, while a loss of $1.30 would likely resume the broader downtrend.
Featured image of ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com