Bitcoin [BTC] has been in a bearish trend since October 2025. Since hitting an all-time high of $126,000, BTC has lost 46% of its value in just under six months. There is no longer any doubt that it has been a bear market.
What was up for debate, however, was the size of the distribution phase. Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. In fact, recently found that large and mid-sized Bitcoin investors still control about 68% of the BTC supply.
The short-term drawdown for holders has been high, and any share price appreciation will likely be met by aggressive profit-taking and a break-even exit. This has already happened once, with the rejection by the resistance at $76K.
Rebalancing of Bitcoin holdings is not yet underway
Cohorts whose balances ranged from 100 to 10,000 BTC were categorized by size. Their share of the supply was 68%, while small participants with 10 BTC or less held only 17% of the supply.
Distribution by large and mid-sized investors and a rebalancing of Bitcoin ownership among cohorts lower down the scale are needed to bring about structural change. This would indicate a wider spread and a regime of capitulation.
Another factor pointing to a deeper reset was the UTXO win count percentage. The metric measures the number of individual unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) that are worth more today than the value they last moved for.
The 30-day and 365-day moving averages of this metric were 69.1% and 87.5%, respectively. This underlined weakness, but not a complete market reset. For context, the one-year moving average from the previous cycle was 55.7%.
In May 2019, the annual average of this metric fell to 63.8%, both of which were quite a far cry from 87.5%. There is tension in the market at the moment. And by the standards of the 365-day moving averages, there may be more room for a full structural reset.
When can the market bottom be expected?
Crypto intelligence platform founder and CEO Joao Wedson used the duration of the post-halving bull market and historical bottoms to estimate the bottom of the current cycle.
The chart showed that the bottom could come 912-922 days after the most recent halving. This means that the estimated cycle bottom will be late September-early October 2026.
Final summary
- Large and mid-sized investors own 68% of the Bitcoin supply, meaning a broader capitulation can be expected in the next six months.
- Based on previous cycles, the current bear market low could come around October 2026.