Key Takeaways
Why is Bitcoin’s Business Support Weakening?
ETF outflows, shrinking stablecoin supply, and falling DAT premiums reduced liquidity and weakened the balance sheet models associated with Bitcoin.
Are Bitcoin companies at risk or Bitcoin itself?
Corporate bonds may face debt stress, but Bitcoin’s network remains unaffected and continues to operate independently.
Bitcoin’s mature stage can bring the same messy problems as maturity: bills, debt, and bad timing. The players that brought it up (ETFs, government bonds and mega corporate buyers) are now the ones bringing it down.
Research reports say the reflexive loop is broken. So maybe the music has stopped and liquidity is leaving the room.
The liquidity reversal begins
For most of 2025 Bitcoin [BTC] ETFs attracted billions to the market, driving up prices. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) fueled demand as stocks traded at premiums, and growing stablecoin balances sent liquidity flooding into crypto markets.
Source: NYDIG
NYDIG’s latest report showed that all three of these engines are now reversed.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw four consecutive weeks of outflows, including $1.22 billion between November 17 and November 21. What used to be a steady influx of buyers has completely turned into selling pressure.
Source:
DAT premiums have collapsed, reducing the incentive to buy business-style Bitcoin.
AMBCrypto previously reported that crypto treasuries have lost more than $45 billion as top assets fell 30-50%, although some VCs argue that DATs are not necessarily net sellers.
SharpLink and a few other companies have sold small amounts, but most of the major DATs have not sold their assets, leaving the long-term impact in question.
Source: NYDIG
Stablecoin supply also shrank for the first time in months, causing liquidity to leave the system.
Source: NYDIG
In contrast, BTC.D only strengthened as other crypto assets weakened faster. Capital moved in for security, not conviction.
Strategy, the time bomb on the balance sheet
MSTR is the clearest example of how Bitcoin’s greatest champions can turn into dead weight.
For years, the company was held up as proof that a corporate balance sheet could be rebuilt around Bitcoin. Now it shows how weak the idea is when the math no longer cooperates.
The headlines still look huge. Nearly 650,000 Bitcoin, more than 3% of the total supply, and a balance sheet that consists of three quarters of Bitcoin.
But the floor creaks. The problem starts with cash… or rather, the lack thereof.
Strategy Inc. has $54 million in cash but owes $700 million a year in preferred dividends, a bill that tops everything else. The software company loses money, forcing the company to raise new capital just to cover old liabilities.
In the first nine months of 2025, almost $20 billion went not to buying Bitcoin, but to paying down debt.
This loop only works when the markets are generous. It ended in November.
The strategy model relied on the stock trading above Bitcoin’s value. Once the shares fell to NAV, issuing new shares no longer helped and it started to get diluted.
The company increased its preferred dividend from 9% to 10.5% to attract investors, but each increase only made the burden heavier.
If the stock continues to fall, the dividend will continue to rise, bringing Strategy closer to selling Bitcoin to survive. That is something the country has long promised not to do.
The October crash already showed how scarce liquidity is coming under pressure. Even selling 100,000 Bitcoin could overwhelm the market.
The 90 day countdown
According to writer Shanaka Anslem Perera, the pressure could escalate on January 15, when MSCI will decide whether companies with more than 50% of assets in digital currencies will be excluded from the major indices. Strategy is at 77% Bitcoin.
The October 10 crash showed how MSCI fears and a bearish JPMorgan note could lead to massive selling; Saylor later clarified that Strategy is an operating company, but uncertainty remains until the policy is finalized.
Source: Substack
JPMorgan estimated forced sales of index funds at $2.8 billion. The total outflow could reach $8.8 billion.
That’s 15-20% of Strategy’s market cap, liquidated by algorithms that don’t care about mission statements or Bitcoin maximalism.
The outflow of ETFs, the contraction of DAT, the contraction of stablecoins… they all arrive at a time when Strategy’s funding model is nearing its breaking point.
Bitcoin will survive. The model will not do that.
Even as corporate risk increases, confidence in government bonds appears unaffected.
An example: El Salvador bought $100 million worth of Bitcoin during the last wave. Keep in mind that government bond buyers operate on a ten-year horizon, while corporations engage in ninety-day refinancing cycles.
Source:
That means Bitcoin is not in existential danger. However, the Bitcoin corporate treasury model can be.
The believers are still believers. But the market no longer cares about their beliefs. It’s about liquidity.
And for the first time in Bitcoin’s institutional era, its biggest proponents could become its biggest source of vulnerability. The next 90 days will not determine whether Bitcoin survives, but which institutions survive with it.