Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest price bounce above $78,000 has sparked renewed optimism in the market Investor sentiment has turned bullish. However, not all market watchers are convinced the momentum will continue. Crypto analyst Marmot warns that the recent price surge may be masking a deeper underlying weakness, urging investors and traders not to rely on it. If bullish predictions continue to spread Marmot believes that traders across the market can miss signals that often precede sharp reversals and major shifts in the market’s direction.
Why Bitcoin’s Rally Above $78,000 Could Be a Trap
Marmot has warned that could be Bitcoin’s recent price surge a big bull trap rather than an ongoing outbreak. He said the recovery resembles a classic distribution pattern designed to take out retailers before a sharp decline occurs.
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In his post on X, the analyst warned investors and traders against trusting BTC bounces above $78,000as market participants increasingly ask for a $100,000 price even though the cryptocurrency is still in the market a bear market. He argued that Bitcoin’s real market movement remains unnoticed and unknown to virtually 99% of traders, despite growing bullish sentiment.
In support of his bearish prediction, Marmot highlighted two identical structures on a Bitcoin price chart, showing that the cryptocurrency had experienced a massive price increase between December 2025 and January 2026. all-time high above $126,000. At the time, BTC formed a triangular wedge pattern, with prices rising to a range between $96,000 and $100,000 before a massive price crash below $65,000 in February 2026.
Marmot’s map shows the same pattern now unfolding in real time. Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation triangle wedge between around $72,000 and $80,000, following the recent price spike. If historical patterns repeat themselves, the analyst will expect Bitcoin to undergo another major correctionthis time up to the $50,000 range. This would represent a crash of over 33.5% from levels above $75,200 at the time of writing.
ETF flows and liquidity are putting pressure on BTC
In his post, Marmot also pointed out several factors that are putting further pressure on Bitcoin’s price and prospects. He pointed Discover Bitcoin ETF activitynoting that they had recently recorded the largest outflow in months. He stated that approximately $300 million was withdrawn in one day, with the outflow also reflected in Fidelity’s ETF.
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Moreover, while retail investors continue to buy the dip, Marmot argued institutions sell the power. Rather than exiting the market completely, the analyst said major players are rotating capital elsewhere as part of a broader repositioning.
Marmot also claimed that liquidity walls imposed by investment firms such as BlackRock are helping to artificially prop up prices. He noted that the reason will likely create exit liquidity for smart money while keeping demand from smaller traders active.
While Marmot has acknowledged that a Bitcoin price crash That may not happen immediately, but he warned that once liquidity leaves the market, the cryptocurrency’s downward slide could be swift and severe. As a result, he has urged traders not to buy at the top while the funds are still rebalancing.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com