According to analyst Willy Woo, Bitcoin is still a long way from triggering the three signals that have historically appeared at the end of bear markets.
Bitcoin is still trading well below the cost basis of recent investors
In a new after At X, analyst Willy Woo listed the three things that often happen at the end of bear markets. The first signal is that price is breaking the cost basis of the short-term holders (STHs). The STHs refer to the investors who purchased their coins in the last 155 days. As such, this group’s cost basis represents the breakeven level of recent buyers of the cryptocurrency.
As the chart below shared by Woo shows, Bitcoin fell below the STH cost basis during previous bear markets and held there, indicating that the new entrants remained underwater.
As visible in the chart, in addition to the bearish shift in Q4 2025, Bitcoin also fell below the STH cost basis and has remained below this level ever since, with the gap widening over time.
Historically, at the end of bear markets, the cryptocurrency’s price has broken back above the STH cost basis (as indicated by circles in the chart). Another thing that tends to follow this phase shift is new purchases from investors. This second signal gives rise to the third: a trend reversal in the average acquisition level of the STHs.
The chart shows that the STH cost basis tends to trend downward during bear markets. This is a natural consequence of coins changing hands at the lower bear market levels, lowering the average breakeven level. As it transitions from a major bearish phase, investors start buying at higher prices, causing the STH cost basis to see an upward reversal.
Under the post, a user asked Woo to explain this. To which the analyst responded with:
Considering the price isn’t even close to the cost basis of recent investors, and that cost basis is falling every day… there’s no point in buying until a cross looms. Bear markets are about patience.
Currently, the Bitcoin STH cost basis is hovering around $81,000, implying that the recent buyers have a net unrealized loss of over 14%. It now remains to be seen how long it will take before the cryptocurrency can find a break above the level.
BTC price
Bitcoin ended last week below the $67,000 level, but the digital asset has risen again, starting Monday with the price recovering to $69,500.