While others argue that the Bitcoin price has has already found its bottom and could be preparing for a bullish reversal, a crypto analyst has dismissed these claims and instead expects further downsides. According to Marmot, a crypto expert on X, Bitcoin has not yet reached its true price bottom. He warns that the flagship cryptocurrency could crash below $45,000 before a sustained recovery to the upside takes shape.
Bitcoin Price Action Reflects 2022 Bear Market
In a recent X post, Marmot shared a bearish analysis of Bitcoin, where we compare the current bear market to previous cycles. The analyst noted that Bitcoin’s recent price action is closely aligned patterns seen in the 2022 bear market.
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It is striking that Bitcoin has already fallen by more than 40% all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025. Since that peak, the cryptocurrency has been on a downward trend, recording brief price increases that Marmot has described as a “fake recovery.” These upward movements temporarily draw investors into the market before prices drop sharply, leading to losses.
To support its bearish outlook, Marmot has divided Bitcoin’s current bear market into three phases. The first phase was completed after the cryptocurrency crashed by more than 54% and is now trading around $74,000. According to him, the market is now in its second bear phase, a period characterized by recurrence bull trapsfakeouts and persistent volatility designed to wipe out short-term investors.
The most recent bull trap was observed next the announcement of the ceasefire between the US and Irancausing Bitcoin to briefly rise above $73,000. However, this rally turned out to be short-lived, just like the price quickly reversed towards $71,000 before rising back above $74,000 at the time of writing.
As bear traps repeatedly wipe out more shorts and long positions get caught in successive bull traps, Marmot argues that Bitcoin is now entering the market. final phase of its bear market. He believes this stage is the most likely for Bitcoin’s real bottom to form.
Analysts predict the “real” Bitcoin bottom
Marmot placed in his horoscope Bitcoin’s expected bottom below the $43,700 level. Since the price is currently hovering around $74,000, this implies a potential decline of more than 40% and a decline of more than 65% from the all-time high.
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Before this low point is reached, Marmot predicts the market could experience this a final crash to shake out the remaining market participants. From its price chart, Bitcoin went through a bear trap and a bull trap before finally bottoming out during the 2022 cycle. Interestingly, the current cycle repeats the same pattern almost perfectly, with BTC’s bull and bear trap already complete as the market prepares for the next bottom crash.
The chart also shows that instead of an immediate drop to the expected price bottom, BTC could first drop to $45,500, stage a brief recovery, and then bottom before recovering and climbing back above $45,000 as the new bullish phase begins.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com