Michael Saylor’s latest bullish thesis is now being put to the test.
However, from a macro perspective, his view on Bitcoin [BTC] doesn’t seem far-fetched. The idea that BTC’s traditional four-year cycle is “dead” actually has some weight.
Technically, the 2024 halving did not deliver the kind of post-halving rally seen in previous cycles, disrupting the usual supply story.
That of course brings us to the digital credit angle. Michael Saylor argued in his post that Bitcoin’s credibility increasingly depends on DeFi, as TradFi institutions integrate BTC as a digital asset and shape its future evolution.
Simply put, rather than functioning as a speculative asset, Bitcoin is gradually positioning itself as a credit instrument within institutional financial systems.
The timing of the tweet is also remarkable. On the macro side, volatility still plays a major role. US President Donald Trump’s warning to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz expires at 10:05 a.m. ET on Monday.
More importantly, this is about 35 minutes after US markets reopen after the three-day weekend.
In fact, analysts are now calling for a very eventful session, with geopolitical uncertainty likely to cause sharp moves in risky assets, including Bitcoin.
Against this backdrop, Michael Saylor’s post starts to make more sense, especially as he claims that institutional adoption will drive Bitcoin’s next phase. Of course, that begs the bigger question: Will Saylor’s “Bitcoin won” theorem actually come true?
Has Bitcoin evolved into DeFi?
For Bitcoin to truly evolve into digital credit, it must show resilience to macro FUD. However, the recent price action suggests that the market has not yet fully reached that stage.
The macro uncertainty has already dragged BTC down nearly 32% from its annual high of $97,000, reinforcing how strongly external liquidity conditions continue to shape price behavior. More importantly, this trend is now also visible in the chain.
At a micro level, Bitcoin transaction fees have fallen to 2.5 BTC per day, the lowest since 2011.
Because fees act as a direct signal of network activity, declining fees indicate weaker demand, lower transaction pressure and reduced participation. Meanwhile, the conviction outside the chain does not seem much stronger.
According to data from CryptoQuant, institutional selling pressure continues as the Coinbase Premium Index (CPI) remains in negative territory, indicating continued selling from US institutional flows.
In fact, the only brief relief from this pressure appeared when Bitcoin retested the $75,000 level.
In the meantime, Net position change of the short-term holder (both in daily measurements and over the 90-day trend) shows a distribution, indicating that STHs are still putting Bitcoin back into the market rather than accumulating.
All told, falling fees, weak accumulation, and continued capitulation, alongside Bitcoin’s 22% correction in the first quarter and an additional 2.04% decline so far in April, show that BTC is not completely insulated from macro risks.
That, in turn, places Michael Saylor’s broader thesis under real market research.
Final summary
- Bitcoin’s institutional story is gaining momentum, but macro volatility continues to dominate price action.
- The weak on-chain activity and continued distribution suggest that BTC is still behaving like a risk asset and not a fully mature digital credit system, calling into question Saylor’s ‘Bitcoin has won’ thesis.