On the surface, it appears that the market is currently moving back and forth between metals and risky assets.
From a technical perspective, the BTC/XAU ratio has already risen 19% in the second quarter, which is the strongest quarterly performance since the Q2 2025 cycle. The key takeaway is that this move is happening as macro FUD is picking up again, indicating that Bitcoin is still attracting relatively stronger capital inflows compared to gold.
That said, not everyone sees this as a sustainable trend. As highlighted in the post below, Peter Schiff has described the recent sell-off in both gold and silver as a “buying opportunity.” This is based on longer-term expectations, such as future rising inflation, driven by higher interest rates, and supports gold’s classic role as a hedge.
On the technical side, BTC/XAU’s pullback towards mid-January resistance is coming into focus. Then Bitcoin [BTC] fell more than 30% from the local high of $93,000, falling all the way to around $62,000 by mid-February. The question now is whether this type of setup will happen again, and whether that could put pressure on Bitcoin’s ‘hedge’ narrative.
From a macro perspective, the statement is not that far-fetched. Inflation rose to around 3.8% in April, while government bond yields rose to a multi-month high above 4.5%. All told, this is consistent with Peter Schiff’s view of a more bearish macro scenario for the US markets ahead.
Naturally, the question arises: which asset, Bitcoin or gold, has the stronger position in this type of FUD?
The Japanese government bond sell-off could change Bitcoin’s liquidity outlook
As the most dominant currency, the impact of a rising DXY ripples across global economies.
Japan is a clear example. USD/JPY is up over 1.3% this week, marking the strongest weekly move since mid-February. The yen is clearly under pressure and markets are now pricing in higher chances of rate hikes by the BoJ. At the same time, the BoJ’s $33 million sell-off of US Treasuries in the first quarter adds another layer to the shift, reflecting a broader tightening impulse coming from Japan.
The key takeaway is that this sell-off was in line with BTC/XAU’s 28% correction in the first quarter. Simply put, as yields rose and the DXY strengthened, it forced the BoJ to make government bond adjustments to support the yen. Naturally, as macro uncertainty surrounding the US dollar increased, capital turned more into gold than Bitcoin.
Fast forward to now, and the format closely mirrors the Q1 structure.
On the macro side, government bond yields are rising as the US dollar approaches the 100 level as inflationary pressures persist. In this context, BTC/XAU resistance couldn’t come at a worse time. If the first quarter cycle is any guide, a new crisis will become a real possibility, in line with Peter Schiff’s thesis.
Final summary
- BTC/XAU is near its resistance as macro pressures build, raising the possibility of a Bitcoin pullback if liquidity tightens again.
- With a stronger dollar, higher interest rates and Japanese-driven capital flows, a Bitcoin correction in the first quarter cannot be ruled out.