The March CPI print arrived. However, the market reaction shows that markets have already priced in this move.
For context, the Consumer Price Index published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed inflation rising to 3.3%, slightly below the forecast of 3.4%.
Meanwhile, the core CPI also fell to 2.6%, just below the expected 2.7%. Yet, despite the “softer than expected” figures, inflation is now at its highest level since May 2024.
Naturally, the market quickly revalued expectations, causing interest rate cuts for 2026 to spiral further out of control.
And yet, Bitcoin [BTC]which closed the day up 1.63%, makes another attempt to break the stubborn resistance at $75,000, indicating that risk appetite is still holding despite geopolitical pressure.
From a macro perspective, the inflation move was also no surprise.
March began with escalating tensions in West Asia, which quickly triggered an oil supply shock. Oil prices rose above $112 per barrel, directly fueling energy-induced inflationary pressures and raising CPI expectations well ahead of the actual release.
In this context, the “softer than expected” CPI figures mainly reflect that markets are already factoring in the energy-driven inflation move, rather than reacting to new information.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s resilience therefore reinforces the same message. Price action has not delivered a real post-CPI shock.
That begs the question: Is the market still underestimating macro risk, or does Bitcoin’s stable bid in real time reflect an emerging ‘safe haven’ narrative?
Bitcoin absorbs volatility, squeezes out shorts and sees gold weaken
Heading into the CPI release, Bitcoin’s price action had already paved the way for liquidity cleanups.
However, data from Coinglass shows that Bitcoin’s 24-hour liquidations reached $52.52 million, with 80.63% coming from short positions that came under pressure.
This short cascade further reinforces the idea that the CPI print was already priced in, with the bears taking most of the hit rather than any new directional shock.
From a technical perspective, this resilience is also consistent with recent comments from Matt Mena, Senior Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, in a statement to AMBCrypto.
He emphasized that the current price structure still supports an upward continuation, with a move towards $80,000 remaining a plausible scenario.
The zone between $73,000 and $75,000 is the next major target. If Bitcoin breaks above, expect a brief period of consolidation before a move towards $80,000.
He continued,
If the Clarity Act passes, the setup could expand further, with $100,000 BTC and a total crypto market cap of $3-$3.2 trillion by the end of the second quarter – an increase of approximately 30-35% from current levels.
He supported this position and pointed out strong ETF inflowsa nearly 60% increase in Clarity Act approval odds on Polymarket, and continued accumulation of Bitcoin through Strategy’s STRC demand, allowing buying at approximately six times daily mining supply.
However, AMBCrypto notes that there is also another important catalyst at play.
Surprisingly, Bitcoin’s response to the CPI did not indicate that markets are underestimating macro risks.
Instead, XAU/BTC, which is down 7.41% so far this week, highlights a clear shift in relative strength between gold and Bitcoin, which helps explain why price action has held steady despite rising inflation.
From a rotation perspective, this setup strengthens Matt Mena’s $80,000 Bitcoin thesis.
Final summary
- The CPI came out largely as expected, with Bitcoin showing no real post-print shock.
- The rotation from gold to Bitcoin, alongside strong ETF inflows and a bullish structure, strengthens the case for a continued rise in BTC towards $80,000.