Bitcoin (BTC) is showing the first signs of a prolonged decline after peaking in October 2025. Historical patterns highlighted by a crypto analyst suggest the world’s largest cryptocurrency has yet to bottom out in the macro bear market, despite recent big declines. Analysis of historical patterns from previous cycles suggests the current market crash is possible persevere many more months to come, and the analyst urges investors and traders to adjust their expectations accordingly.
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Bitcoin’s Historical Correlation Points to Further Crash
Crypto market expert Greeny shared a new technical analysis from Historical data from the analyst’s chart shows that Bitcoin took about 410 days to hit a low between 2013 and 2015.
Similarly, the cycle from 2017 to 2018 lasted approximately 363 days, while the decline in the peak of 2021 extended by approximately 376 days. The average over these three cycles is about 383 days, approximately over a year. In this cycle, the analyst notes that the market is about five months past its October peak, suggesting that the current The downward trend is far from over.
Greeny has also noted that the historical declines in recent cycles have been severe. In 2011, Bitcoin crashed by as much as 93% before hitting a bottom. Later in 2015, the cryptocurrency fell from its peak, marking an 85% slump, while in 2022 it dropped another 77% after the 2021 bull market rally.
According to the analyst, Bitcoin is currently trading 42% lower the all-time high is over $126,000 in this cycle, further reinforcing his belief that the market still has significant room for more losses. While Greeny acknowledged that institutional demand could prevent a crash as deep as previous cycles, he believes the timing of the bottom of this bear market is consistent with historical trends.
In addition to bear market duration and crash depths, Greeny also highlights Bitcoin’s post-descent accumulation phases for each cycle. He noted that in 2015, Bitcoin traded sideways for 15 months before a new uptrend emerged. Likewise, both 2018 and 2022 saw roughly eighteen months of choppy trading before a market shift occurred.
Greeny is convinced that the current market cycle reflects historical patterns. He expects the ongoing market crash to continue, with a meaningful impact accumulation phase still free for quite some time. This further supports the view that Bitcoin is still in the early stages of its bear market.
What to expect in the current market cycle
Greeny suggested that the average macro bear market bottom has historically appeared about 363 days after the cycle peak, creating a potential bottom in late 2026 or beyond. He explained that even though Bitcoin has already started its price dump, it is The broader weakness is still ongoing.
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The analyst warned that traders hoping for a quick “V recovery” may be disappointed as such rebounds have never occurred in Bitcoin’s history. He added that afterwards BTC reaches a price bottomThe accumulation phase is expected to last twelve to sixteen months before a trend shift is confirmed. Greeny noted that the recent sharp decline in February may shorten this phase somewhat, but that a complete trend shift is unlikely before 2027.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView