Despite growing optimism that Bitcoin has reached a cycle low, historical cycles suggest another leg down could still be ahead. Although increasing institutional involvement could reduce the severity of the downturn, a graph shows shared by a top crypto analyst suggests that the cryptocurrency could still exist on the way to a bottom below $30,000 before a sustainable recovery begins.
Bitcoin cycle pattern points to a possible deeper low
The analyst explains this Bitcoin has followed a repeating pattern during major market cycles, where strong rallies are followed by very deep price declines. In previous cycles, Bitcoin fell approximately 83.90% after the 2017 peak and approximately 77.91% after the 2021 peak. These past movements are used as a guide to understanding the current market structure.
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In the current cycle, Bitcoin has risen above $120,000 during the 2025 bull run before entering a descent. At the time of the analysis, the price was in the low $60,000 range. The main point being made is that if Bitcoin were to fall by a similar percentage as in previous cycles, the eventual bottom could be much lower than current levels.
A similar kind of decline, around 78.92%, would place a potential low below $30,000. This is not presented as a prediction, but as a possible outcome of the market follows its historical pattern.
The analyst also highlights that Bitcoin tends to move within a long-term upward channel past the bear market lows form near the lower edge of that range. Based on this structure, the argument suggests that the market may still be in the middle of its correction phase deeper descent is still possible before a final bottom is reached.
Settings change the equation
Still, the analyst does not believe that history will repeat itself perfectly. While the chart illustrates that previous cycles have often wiped out nearly 80% of the value from their highs, it argues that the market structure has evolved.
Unlike previous cycles, the current environment includes this substantial institutional participation. Large investment firms, exchange-traded funds and corporate government bond allocations have introduced new sources of demand that were largely absent during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. From the analyst’s perspective, that growing institutional presence should gradually reduce volatility.
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For that reason, the analyst expects the eventual decline to be closer to 50%-60%, rather than the historical average of almost 80%. Based on that framework, a floor of around $52,000 becomes the preferred target a collapse below $30,000. The outlook also includes a bold prediction that October could mark the start of a new bull market.
For now, the chart offers two competing possibilities. Historical cycle behavior suggests a destination below $30,000, while the analyst’s adjusted model points to a smaller decline around $52,000. The gap between these outcomes highlights the question dominating the Bitcoin market today: will institutional capital rewrite the rules, or will history have the final say?
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com