Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming weeks could turn bearish given a new pattern emerging from traditional investor activity in the United States.
This is against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US, Israel and Iran. Given the high exposure of US traditional investors to Bitcoin [BTC]with a combined net asset value of $95.21 billion, their behavior carries significant weight and deserves close analysis.
A familiar pattern is forming around Bitcoin’s weak ETF inflows
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded one of the lowest daily inflows of 2026, taking in just $7.61 million that day.
This is the third time that inflows have reached a minimum level, and the second lowest level of the year. It is between the January 26 inflow of $6.84 million and the February 13 inflow of $15.20 million.
Despite recording positive inflows, both previous occasions pointed to early signs of buyer exhaustion. This could make the press read about a new fractal in the making.
Initially, after the $6.84 million inflow on January 26, Bitcoin’s price fell from $87,630 to $83,910 within four days, selling off $1.49 billion in assets. Then on February 13, after the $15.20 million inflow, it fell from $68,780 to $64,470, with a sales value of $403.90 million.
If this fractal holds, Bitcoin could experience another major sell-off. The median of the last two events estimates an outflow of approximately $949.24 million.
A negative premium puts US investors in the bearish camp
The bearish case becomes stronger when the broader sentiment of US crypto investors is taken into account.
That sentiment can be measured using the Coinbase Premium Index. It is an indicator that compares the buying pressure on Coinbase, a predominantly US-based exchange, with Binance, a globally dominant platform.
At the time of writing, the premium was in negative territory at -0.04, indicating weaker buying pressure from US investors. Historically, values in the red zone have been correlated with price declines, with this value being no exception.
If the premium continues to slide deeper into negative territory, it would mean the market remains largely bearish. It would also increase the likelihood of U.S. investors moving money out of Coinbase, and by extension, through asset managers.
Institutions are not leaving the market!
While institutional Bitcoin holdings have fallen by $69.94 billion since their peak on October 8, the market for tokenized assets has moved in the opposite direction.
For example, data from RWA.xyz shows that the real-world asset (RWA) on-chain market has grown by $7.85 billion since the broader crypto market began to decline, bringing its total valuation to $26.60 billion. US-based assets have dominated this segment so far.
This trend signals a deliberate move to reduce risk, with some institutional investors remaining active in the market but switching to tokenized real world assets rather than maintaining exposure to Bitcoin.
Final summary
- Bitcoin’s traditional investors in the US bought $7.61 million worth of Bitcoin, but left signs of a possible pullback.
- Bitcoin’s premium on Coinbase turned negative, confirming that selling pressure is increasing.