Crypto market analyst Marmot has sounded the alarm over the latest Bitcoin price surge, warning that the cryptocurrency’s rally above $70,000 is a “very, very bad” signal. He argues that Bitcoin has not entered bullish territory, and urges investors and traders not to view the recent rebound as a sign of sustainable recovery. Based on its technical analysis, Marmot believes so Bitcoin has not yet reached its true bottomwarning that the flagship cryptocurrency still faces another sharp decline.
Why Bitcoin Price Recovery Above $70,000 Is Bad
Marmot called Bitcoin price recovers above $74,000 a fall. In a post on The analyst noted that Bitcoin’s price above $72,000 was not without reason, highlighting that the rebound was a carefully designed whale trap to attract retail buyers before a broader sell-off.
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Marmot urged investors not to confuse this relief rally with a the start of a new bull run. He noted that similar rallies have historically lured traders into ill-timed entries, only to be washed away. The analyst also outlined why 90% of BTC traders are typically wiped out by November 2026, when previous bear market cycles bottomed out.
According to Marmot, Bitcoin often experiences a bear market bull trapsin which sudden price pumps create the illusion that the downtrend has ended. This step tends to nourish hope and Causing FOMO among investorscausing many to join in the rebound. Once this happens, Bitcoin’s price reverses sharply downward, often falling back to pre-rally levels. heavy liquidations.
The analyst emphasized that despite recent price strength, global liquidity is drying up institutions are quietly leaving the market to limit downside risk. With weaker demand and geopolitical tensions weighing heavily on market sentiment, Marmot believes the bottom of Bitcoin’s bear market is still far away.
Timeline and target for Bitcoin’s price bottom
In his chart analysis, Marmot referenced previous cycles, noting that Bitcoin has historically gone through long periods of decline before forming a bottom. He pointed out that in 2012, Bitcoin traded sideways for up to 405 days before hitting a bottom. In the 2026 cycle, the cryptocurrency found a price bottom after about 362 days, and finally, in 2020, the market fell for about 376 days before bottoming out.
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Based on this historical bear market patternMarmot estimates that Bitcoin’s capitulation phase in this cycle could occur between July and November 2026. His chart shows that BTC’s price could rise even higher above $78,000 before a a final withdrawal below $54,000, where the price will likely find its true bottom.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com