Bitcoin has been above $65,000 for over a month now, and this price level is starting to carry more weight than it seems at first glance. The current structure is no longer just about short-term volatility, but about whether the market builds a foundation or prepare for another move lower to $40,000 before a real rally begins.
Another question now is not only where Bitcoin is going, but also how the next step will shape the future timeline for an altcoin season.
Analyst Warns of Bear Case That Could Delay Altcoin Season
A recent technical analysis of one chartist points to a less favorable path for Bitcoin, one that could push price action into a new extended trajectory.
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The analyst describes this setup as a bear case scenario, noting that this is not the expected outcome but still a realistic possibility. In this structure, Bitcoin’s price action first moves higher to a resistance zone around the $78,000 to $82,000 region, where an earlier breakdown occurred in late January.
However, that optimism is could be short-lived. The projection shows the price failing at that resistance and reversing sharply, leading to a deeper decline that surpasses previous lows and pushes the Bitcoin price below $40,000. According to the analyst, such a move would delay the formation of a macro bottom and push any meaningful altcoin season further out.
There is also a liquidity zone around a February low. That wick is just above $60,000, where the Bitcoin price bottomed on February 6 before quickly being bought back up.
The outlook is that this level still needs to be clearly cleared before a sustained rally can begin. Without that sweep, upward moves will still be vulnerable to failure.
A quick bottom from current levels would allow capital to turn into altcoins more quickly. A delayed move to levels, on the other hand, will keep liquidity in Bitcoin locked in for longer and delay the rotation.
A drop below $40,000 seems unlikely
Even with that bearish scenario on the table, Bitcoin’s price structure still cannot withstand a sustained collapse below $40,000. According to the analyst, the chance of this scenario playing out is only about 40%.
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Data in the chain shows strong support were well above the $40,000 price level. For example, The realized price of Bitcoin is still around $54,000, and this would serve as support even if Bitcoin were to fall below $60,000 and move into the $50,000 range.
Speaking of support, the Bitcoin price managed to stay on top $63,000 since the early February crash, despite macroeconomic headwinds the war in the Middle Eastoil prices riseand multiple predictions of a further bottom below $60,000 and even some under $50,000 in the past two months.
Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com