Bitcoin halvings have historically led to explosive rallies. This cycle takes place with much more restraint.
The 2012 cycle rose almost 9,000%, from about $2 to over $180. The 2016 cycle gained about 2,950%, while 2020 gained about 700%, from $8,000 to $64,000.
In contrast, the 2024 cycle rose from $64,000 to almost $125,000, a 97% increase. As the cycle approached 730 days, the price fell back to $74,000-$75,000, leaving only 15-19% net growth.
That shift suggested momentum peaked earlier than in previous cycles. Volatility has since compressed, with price action trending toward steady accumulation.
Did this cycle peak earlier than normal?
Data aligned with this vision. A chart shared by Alex Thorn showed that cycle 4 lagged behind previous cycles over similar timelines.
This underperformance indicated an earlier peak, and not the longer late-cycle rallies we have historically seen.
Have ETFs Fueled Bitcoin’s Rally?
Bitcoin [BTC] The usual streak broke in early 2024. The price reached around $73,750 in March, weeks before the April halving.
In previous cycles, new highs followed the halving as supply gradually tightened.
However, the dynamics changed in January 2024 with the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Institutional inflows exceeded $57.6 billion in April 2026, absorbing large amounts of BTC.
That early demand reduced the available supply earlier. As a result, price development progressed ahead of schedule, eating up some of the expected increase before the halving.
What do signals in the chain reveal now?
On-chain data reflected a more balanced market.
The MVRV ratio hovered around 1.3, while the net unrealized gain/loss (NUPL) remained around 0.26. These levels showed that holders continued to make profits without reaching excesses.
In fact, the Derivatives business reflected this restraint. Open interest (OI) grew steadily without sharp peaks, while financing rates remained balanced.
Source: CryptoQuant
That behavior suggested traders avoided aggressive leverage, in line with stronger institutional participation and controlled exposure.
As both the on-chain and derivatives data aligned, price action slowed and volatility narrowed.
Bitcoin’s steadier gains reflected a maturing market structure. Still, renewed demand could still change the momentum and extend the cycle.
Final summary
- Bitcoin’s 2024 cycle delivered much lower returns than previous halvings, showing a clear slowdown in its upward expansion
- Over $57 billion in ETF inflows have prematurely absorbed supply, narrowing the scope for explosive gains after the halving