Bitcoin’s on-chain data revealed a sharp behavioral break. As volatility increased, retail panic selling accelerated, while fears of a deeper retail downturn grew.
As a result, short-term holders sold below cost, locking in losses and reflecting bearish sentiment. During this phase, the supply of Short-Term Holders (STH) at a loss expanded, confirming the capitulation.
Whales, on the other hand, piled up steadily for several weeks. Portfolios holding at least 1,000 BTC increased collective holdings by 104,340 BTC, an increase of 1.5%.
That made for a total number of whales delivery to 7.17 million BTC, a four-month high.
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Meanwhile, more than $1 million comes in every day transfers reached a two-month high, indicating active accumulation. This dynamic implies the absorption of smart money as the retail sector becomes depleted.
STHs capitulate as realized losses remain high
Bitcoins [BTC] The net realized profit and loss analysis showed that the $4.5 billion was realized loss did not occur in a single print, but accumulated via repeated downward peaks.
This indicated long-term stress rather than a single capitulation.
While the price of BTC remained near its peak, distribution intensified. As a result, losses mounted as short-term holders sold their stocks for drawdowns, driven by macro uncertainty, ETF outflows and waning momentum.
Source: CryptoQuant
Historically, similar NRPL flushes appeared in 2018, 2020, and late 2022. Notably, the last comparable event saw Bitcoin worth almost $28,000, followed by a long basing phase.
These losses correlate with capitulation. Recovery typically occurs once exhaust sales and accumulation absorbs supply.
Building on the spike in dollar-denominated NRPL, the 30-day realized net gain/loss in BTC terms adds clarity to who is selling and how.
The analysis showed the measure fell below zero in late 2025, marking the first sustained negative print since September 2023.
Importantly, this selling is gradual and not abrupt, indicating pressure rather than panic.
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These losses are largely coming from short-term holders as recent buyers sell below cost after failed breakouts above $90,000.
Macro uncertainty, the volatility of ETF flows and the disappearance of the debt burden reinforce this behavior. The result is that supply rears its ugly head and freezes the price.
From a positioning perspective, bulls will need to monitor signs of loss and depletion while bears remain focused on the survival of the distribution.
The range is preserved if the losses form the structure
Realizing short-term losses continued to shape Bitcoin’s structure, keeping its price within a wide consolidation range.
Selling below cost provided additional supply during rebounds, limiting breakouts above the $95,000-$100,000 resistance zone.
Source: TradingView
At the same time, selling pressure has eased to almost $85,000-88,000, with buyers showing a willingness to take up the offer.
This equilibrium favored sideways price action rather than a sustained trend. A breakout would likely require realized losses to decline, alongside stronger spot market demand.
On the other hand, a renewed increase in realized losses could weaken support and trigger a new test at lower levels.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin’s pullback reflected the short-term capitulation of holders, with realized losses transferring supply to whales, which continued to accumulate despite price stagnation.
- The continued selling left Bitcoin price stuck between the support of $85,000 and $88,000 and the resistance of $95,000 to $100,000, leaving its direction dependent on the exhaustion of losses and renewed demand for Spot.