Bitcoin’s recovery from the February 6 low of $60,000 is showing the first signs of structural improvement, but according to CryptoQuant analyst Maartun, the move still looks more like a bear market rally than a confirmed breakout. In an April 20 video, the analyst argued that as long-term holders accumulate and strategic capital enters the market, continued selling from short-term holders and whales still dominates.
Maartun framed the current setup as a matter of market character and not raw price performance. Bitcoin is trading around $75,000, roughly 24% above what he described as the bear market low, but he said that alone is not enough to determine whether the market heads higher in a sustainable manner.
“The real question is not how far the price has moved. It’s what kind of move this actually is,” he said. “Is this the start of a new trend or just another selling rally? And that distinction matters because misreading this phase is exactly how capital is misallocated.”
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His core argument is that the fundamentals under the market have improved, even if the price has not yet confirmed this. Over the past 30 days, the supply of long-term holders has increased by approximately 354,000 BTC, a shift he described as “structural accumulation.” According to Maartun, these are signals that coins are being absorbed and removed from active circulation by participants who are less sensitive to short-term volatility.
“That’s not a small number. That’s structural accumulation,” he said. “Coins are being absorbed and taken out of active circulation. Long-term holders don’t respond to short-term volatility. So when their supply increases, it usually means the market is quietly building a stronger foundation.”
However, this constructive background is only one side of the picture. Maartun said much of the recent price increase appears to have come from a more tactical mix of strategic buying and speculative positioning. He highlighted a rapid capital raise by Strategy, which he said raised about $2.66 billion in 48 hours, including $1.16 billion on April 13 and another $1.56 billion on April 14.
He argued that such an aggressive capital injection would normally trigger a stronger market reaction. If that doesn’t happen, it means that substantial supply is meeting demand.
In that regard, Maartun pointed to two seller cohorts. The first are the short-term holders, who have moved around 60,000 BTC to exchanges. Crucially, this happens while the SOPR remains below 1, meaning these holders are exiting at a loss rather than selling from a position of strength.
“We have seen around 60,000 BTC from this group move to exchanges,” he said. “And most importantly, this is happening while the SOPR is below one, which means they’re selling at a loss. They bought higher and now they’re getting stronger. That’s classic behavior in a bear market environment.”
He did not present that flow as entirely bearish. Instead, he described it as part of a broader rotation in which weaker hands sell against bids from stronger buyers. Still, he says this is a characteristic more often associated with bear market rallies than pure trend continuation.
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The second source of supply is whales. According to Maartun, wallets holding more than 100 BTC have increased currency inflows, indicating that distribution is picking up again at current levels. This is important because it creates a market in which improving the long-term structure goes hand in hand with active selling pressure in the short term.
He says price action reflects that tension. Bitcoin remains below the holder’s short-term realized price, which he placed around $83,000. Maartun described that level as a key pivot point: In bull markets, the price tends to stay above it, while in weaker phases it often acts as resistance. For now, Bitcoin is still trading below it, and he said the market has yet to make a clear breakout through major overhead levels.
The result is what Maartun called a “fairly balanced, but not yet bullish, picture.” Long-term holders are piling up, strategic demand has arisen, and weaker participants are being wiped out. But short-term holders are still selling at a loss, whales are dividing in strength, and the price has not yet reached a major structural threshold.
That puts the market in a conditional state. If demand can continue to absorb supply and push Bitcoin back above the holder’s realized price in the short term, the improving backdrop could begin to translate into a more sustainable uptrend. Until then, Maartun’s conclusion is more reserved: the internal structure is improving, but the rally has not yet earned the benefit of the doubt.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $75,088.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com