BTC faces breakeven supply near $70,000 – $80,000
Bitcoin’s recovery is starting to encounter a different kind of resistance, one that builds on previous profit-taking pressures. While the price stabilizes around $70,800, approximately 13.5 million addresses remain lost, showing that many participants have entered above current levels. This stems from BTC’s drop of almost $120,000, which left a large cohort with unrealized losses.
As the price tries to regain the $70,000-$80,000 range, these holders are getting closer to breakeven. This changes behavior, as patience shifts to the intention to leave. Sales then start to come on top of the previous profit realization, which explains why the recovery is difficult to continue.
This dynamic implies a stacked supply zone, where both profit takers and captive holders weigh on the price. If demand strengthens, absorption may offset this range; If not, repeated rejections can delay an ongoing outbreak.
Can BTC’s Spot Demand Absorb Supply?
Bitcoin is close to $70,770, but the market no longer reacts to price alone; it responds to the quality of incoming demand. As sell-side pressure increases due to previous profit taking, ETF inflows rose to $240.4 million on April 10, pushing cumulative flows above $56.7 billion. This indicates that institutions are intervening, not through leverage, but through spot accumulation.
As demand rises, the Coinbase Premium Index has turned positive at the time of writing, indicating that US buyers are actively absorbing supply. This is significant because spot market demand can support rallies, unlike leverage-induced spikes that quickly fade. At the same time, Open Interest (OI) at the time of writing was $51.3 billion, indicating strong participation without excessive risk.
If this demand continues, the price could forcefully rise above $80,000. However, if inflows slow or sales increase, rejection may return, leaving the market limited.
Furthermore, Bitcoin faces dual supply pressure from profit takers and underwater holders near $70,000-$80,000, limiting rallies and slowing momentum. A sustained break above $80,000 will require strong, consistent demand in the spot market to offset both active and latent selling pressure.
Final summary
- Bitcoin faces a tiered supply range of between $70,000 and $80,000, limiting rallies unless demand strengthens.
- BTC needs sustained spot inflows to get above $80,000 by absorbing active and latent supply.