The Bitcoin price has continued its terrible form in the last quarter of 2025, ending the year much as it started. After losing the psychological level of $100,000 on Thursday, November 13, the leading cryptocurrency appears to be in freefall under significant bearish pressure.
Theories and debates continue to swirl as to whether the Bitcoin price is merely feeling the effect of a naturally volatile crypto market or whether bear season is slowly approaching. A specific hypothesis explains that a loss of a certain technical level could mean a longer correction period for BTC.
Factors Behind the Bitcoin Price Collapse
In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, XWIN Research assumed and suggested how long Bitcoin’s current price decline could last. Before delving into its theory, the digital asset research firm first highlighted some of the factors behind the current decline in the price of BTC.
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XWIN Research has found that lower expectations for a rate cut in December are one of the reasons behind the recent decline. The shift in the Federal Reserve’s stance dragged the Bitcoin price below the key $100,000 level.
Second, the crypto analytics firm noted that capital flows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have reversed sharply, with the investment products seeing nearly $1.1 billion in outflows in recent days. These massive pullbacks indicate weakening institutional demand and general market sentiment.
Finally, XWIN Research revealed that excessive leverage in the market declined violently. “Once the major support broke, back-to-back liquidations within hours led to over $600 million in forced long closes, adding to this, stock market-related rumors and DeFi security incidents pushed sentiment into extreme fear,” the analytics firm wrote.
How long could this decline continue?
After laying out the factors behind this Bitcoin price drop, XWIN Research has put forward a theory and potential timeline for the future trajectory of the flagship cryptocurrency. With the $92,000 – $94,000 region being pinpointed as the next critical support, a break of this zone could push BTC’s price down to around $85,000.
XWIN Research wrote in its Quicktake post that this $92,000 breakdown could see the Bitcoin price correction persist until early to mid-2026. However, analytics firm DeFi noted that recent data on the chain offers a more optimistic outlook for the market leader.
For example, the cost basis for six to twelve month holders is approximately $94,000, which serves as strong structural support. As long as the Bitcoin price remains above this band, the long-term bullish case for the major cryptocurrency remains intact.
XWIN Research added:
Several catalysts could drive the next recovery. Most important is an improvement in macroeconomic conditions: a shift to interest rate cuts or broader liquidity expansion in 2026 would draw capital back into risky assets.
At the time of writing, the price of BTC stands at around $94,930, reflecting a drop of almost 4% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView