Bitcoin traded as high as $73,000 after rising 9% in the past week. However, the broader market suggests that the leading cryptocurrency is still stuck in a bear phase that has lasted for more than six months. Interestingly, historical data suggests that recent price movements could trigger a significant bullish recovery, which could provide investors with a period of relief in the medium to long term.
Bitcoin is approaching the key support level as the historic recovery hits bullseye
In one X message on April 11, renowned analyst Ali Martinez shares a positive observation of the Bitcoin price chart, highlighting a cyclical price rally. This price increase is mainly triggered by a retest of a certain long-standing rising trend line over an extended correction period, as is observed. Martinez calls this rising trendline the ‘Parabolic Guard’ and describes it as probably the most consistent technical level in Bitcoin history. Over the past decade, a new price test of this support line has consistently preceded a huge rebound. In 2017, Bitcoin’s contact with this trendline fueled a staggering 961% gain in the following months.
This is perhaps the most respected technical line in Bitcoin $BTC history. For almost a decade, this rising trend line has acted as the ‘Parabolic Guard’. Historically, every touch has preceded enormous expansion:
• 2017: +963% • 2018: +261% • 2020: +1,126% • 2022:… https://t.co/uIDjVPVIyx pic.twitter.com/QloO6k66OO
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) April 11, 2026
A similar event was observed in 2018; however, it resulted in a lower yield of 261%. In 2020, Bitcoin’s retest of the Parabolic Guard saw its price rise 1.126% before the 2022 bear market began. Later in 2022, the bullish condition was met again, resulting in a 660% gain over the past four years. According to Martinez, the historical upward trend line currently runs between $56,000 and $60,000, about 20% below the current market price. Interestingly, the current low in the cycle is around $60,000, which Bitcoin formed during an intense market sell-off in early February.
According to Martinez’s latest post, the market would likely need a return to this market bottom to end the bear market and initiate a long-term recovery. The prominent analyst also explains that Bitcoin’s contact with the Parabolic Guard would slow the accumulation of smart money in anticipation of the next price increase.
Bitcoin Market Overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was valued at $71,508, having lost 1.81% over the past day. Meanwhile, its daily trading volume is down 27.35% and is valued at $26.35 billion. According to CoinCodex dataoverall market sentiment is heavily bearish, while the Fear & Greed Index is still in extreme fear territory. Nevertheless, CoinCodex analysts expect the Bitcoin market’s rebound driven by easing geopolitical tensions to continue for the time being, with price forecasts of $79,729 in the next five days.
Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview