The first signs of a bear phase often emerge when miners begin to capitulate as patience begins to fade.
The first quarter of 2026 clearly reflects this dynamic. From a technical point of view Bitcoin [BTC] ended the quarter with a loss of 22%, marking its weakest first-quarter performance in nearly eight years and ending the period at nearly $68,000.
In particular, miners’ positioning during the quarter reinforced the broader bearish structure.
As the chart below shows, several major public miners sold more than 32,000 BTC in the first quarter of 2026, according to data analyzed by TheEnergyMag.
The dataset remains incomplete and some reports are still pending. And yet, miner sales have already “exceeded” total net sales for all of 2025, setting a new industry record.
Additionally, the 32,000 BTC liquidated in the first quarter alone has surpassed the 20,000 BTC sold in the second quarter of 2022 during the Terra-Luna fallout. In short, the first quarter reflected clear bearish pressure on Bitcoin, with miner distribution playing a key role.
Fast forward to the second quarter, Bitcoin is already up 10%, reducing the immediate risk of miner capitulation.
However, data on the chain has not yet fully confirmed this shift. Key statistics show that Bitcoin’s price for miners hovers around $69,000, meaning profitability margins remain tight.
At the same time, there is additional supply pressure from large government owners. Bhutan has sold $18.4 million worth of BTC, while the US government’s $606k BTC sell-off adds a new layer of distribution, keeping upside momentum in check.
Against this backdrop, it may be premature to rule out another round of miner sales. From a technical lens, Bitcoin trades only about 7% above the miner price, a thin cushion given the ongoing government distribution.
This raises an important question: could another first-quarter-style sell-off emerge in the second quarter?
Corporate sales of miners keep Bitcoin in a distribution-heavy setup
The real pressure of miners’ capitulation does not usually come from individual miners.
Instead, the impact comes from publicly traded mining companies collectively holding significant BTC government bonds.
The logic is simple: unlike smaller miners, corporate Bitcoin miners operate at scale, meaning their government bond sales introduce a stable supply to the market rather than one-off sell orders.
The result? Miners’ capitulation is less about declining hash rates and more about balance sheet stress. A recent CryptoQuant report highlights this ongoing trend.
As the chart below shows, miner reserves have steadily declined over the current cycle, from about 1.862 million BTC to about 1.801 million BTC, a net sell-off of almost 61,000 BTC.
Interestingly enough, much of this pressure is coming from large Bitcoin mining companies.
According to CryptoQuant dataRiot Platforms reduced its holdings by 4,026 BTC, Marathon Digital by 13,210 BTC and Core Scientific by 1,992 BTC.
Technically, this accounts for more than 30% of the 61,000 BTC sold, reinforcing the view that corporate miners are taking on most of the distribution pressure.
Add to this this tightening of profitability and the government’s continued selling of BTC, and the broader supply-side pressures become even more apparent.
Together, these factors suggest that Bitcoin is still in a distribution-heavy phase, rather than a clear accumulation setup, potentially carrying the sell-off pressure from the first quarter into the second quarter and signaling a potentially bearish quarter for Bitcoin.
Final summary
- Miner sales exceeded 32,000 BTC in the first quarter, which was the largest quarterly distribution ever and signaled strong bearish pressure.
- With Bitcoin just 7% above miner prices and government selling of BTC continuing, the second quarter could still see continued supply-side pressure.