After months of subdued activity, Bitcoin recorded its first monthly close in nine months in April, with inflows reaching $275 billion – the highest level since August 2025.
Despite this increase, questions remain about the sustainability of the rally. Early bullish signals are emerging, but have yet to translate into confirmed demand strength.
Demand lags behind price momentum
Data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin is up about 30% since February, reflecting a clear price recovery. However, underlying demand conditions remain insufficient to confirm the onset of a full bull cycle.
This assessment relies on the Bitcoin Apparent Demand Growth metric, which evaluates whether the market is experiencing sustained accumulation. The indicator measures the gap between newly issued Bitcoin and the portion of the supply that remains inactive.
That gap remains negative at around 44,700 BTC, indicating that demand has yet to absorb new supply. Until this metric turns positive, claims of a confirmed bull run remain premature.
Still, the trend shows improvement. The shortage has decreased from around 89,000 BTC in early April, indicating that accumulation is gradually increasing.
For now, however, demand is lagging behind the price action. A sustainable bullish trend will likely require continued positive readings from this indicator.
The buyer’s dominance is becoming stronger
At the same time, short-term market dynamics are starting to change. The Spot Taker Cumulative Volume Delta shows that buyers have dominated spot activity for four consecutive days.
This continued pressure from buyers signals a growing belief among market participants and a shift in control towards buyers.
Exchange flow data reinforces this trend. Bitcoin’s spot netflow has remained negative, with approximately 1,995 BTC accumulated between May 1 and the time of writing – equivalent to approximately $157 million.
If this pattern holds, continued accumulation alongside buyer dominance could support a more stable upward move as bullish momentum increases.
Volume statistics further support this outlook. Bitcoin trading volume has risen to $32.94 billion while prices remain stable, a combination that often precedes stronger directional moves.
An institutional positioning is starting to emerge
Bitcoin’s implied volatility has also declined, retreating to the 40th percentile. Historically, such levels have coincided with periods of institutional positioning and subsequent price increases.
Previous declines in implied volatility to similar levels preceded notable market events, according to senior analyst James Van Straten. These include the October 2023 liquidation-induced move and the broader rally that followed leading up to the spot ETF wave.
“Volume tends to increase and prices go along with it. Volume doesn’t stay this low for long,” he noted.
This pattern suggests that a volatility compression phase may be underway, often a precursor to a significant breakout.
While structural demand remains unconfirmed, improving accumulation trends, continued buyer dominance and declining volatility point to the early stages of potentially stronger market movement in the coming weeks.
Final summary
- Bitcoin recorded $275 billion inflows in April, but apparent demand remains weak.
- Net buying of $157 million and four straight days of taker buy dominance point to a strengthening near-term outlook.