Bitcoin could be approaching a more consistent upward move if current technical and on-chain trends hold, according to Capriole founder Charles Edwards, who argued in a new market note that a cluster of macro, sentiment and blockchain indicators have shifted in a more constructive direction despite a volatile geopolitical backdrop.
Edwards framed the current environment is extremely difficult to navigate, with markets swinging between war fears, oil spikes and a rapidly changing landscape of AI threats. Still, he said the underlying signal from Bitcoin and broader macro data is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore, especially if BTC can sustain a monthly and weekly close above $71,500, a level he described as a critical threshold.
Bitcoin technicals and on-chain turn bullish
In terms of price structure alone, Edwards said a close above $71,500 would mark Bitcoin’s strongest monthly technical performance in a year. On the daily chart, he described the recent move as even more encouraging, citing overwhelming progress and remarkable relative strength against other markets since the start of the war with Iran.
That relative performance matters in his framework because Bitcoin has largely traded as a risk asset over the past nine months.
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He combined that map display with a series of on-chain signals that, he believes, resemble previous accumulation zones. Normalized dormancy is low, which he says indicates that long-term holders are not dividing into weakness. He also pointed to renewed “restacking” by longer-term holders, including a recent turn in the two-plus year cohort, and deeply depressed SOPR readings, which historically have often coincided with stronger Bitcoin forward opportunities.
Miners send a similar message, he argued. Edwards said the market is in a deep capitulation phase for miners, referring to Hash Ribbons, while selling pressure for miners is also unusually subdued. He added that one of the key charts in his stack now shows institutions as net buyers again, a backdrop he said has accompanied every major Bitcoin appreciation phase of the past five years, when demand exceeded newly mined supply.
All things considered, the message was simple: “Under this amount of data (and more), it’s hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.”
Macro anxiety is subsiding, but not gone yet
Edwards also linked Bitcoin’s improving backdrop to traditional market metrics. He highlighted a recent macro buy signal for the VIX after volatility dropped from above 30 to the 20s area, a CNN Fear & Greed reading in the buy zone, and what he called the biggest weekly jump in US liquidity since May 2025. According to him, these shifts indicate that markets are starting to move past the sharpest phase of geopolitical panic.
This is important because, according to him, markets are increasingly viewing the conflict with Iran as a contained risk rather than as a lasting macro shock. Oil has fallen below $100 again, the US-Iran ceasefire is in effect and Bitcoin has outperformed stocks by 11% since the start of the war, according to Edwards. For an asset that has been in a broad downtrend for months, he sees that as a meaningful change in character.
He went further, arguing that markets may now be entering what he called “volatility fatigue,” a phase in which investors ignore the daily reversals in headlines and instead return to pricing liquidity, growth and fundamentals.
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Yet the note was not merely a bullish market call. Edwards has spent a lot of time on what he sees as a growing AI-driven security threat to crypto infrastructure, especially DeFi and complex smart contract systems. He argued that increasingly capable models will compress the time it takes to discover and exploit vulnerabilities from months to minutes.
His advice was blunt: “If you don’t have a really good reason to use complex DeFi protocols and smart contracts, you probably shouldn’t be as we enter this new AI realm. Think about it. Is it really worth taking out those extra few basis points to borrow/borrow/bridge/stake/redraw?”
This caution is next to the bullish case and not against it. Edwards’ broader argument is that the market is starting to reward opportunity over fear, but only for investors who remain disciplined about risk.
“Let us not weigh the problems too heavily in our minds, but prepare accordingly,” he wrote. “Long-term performance has historically rewarded those who position themselves for the optimistic outcome, while simultaneously managing risk, diligently monitoring the data, and trading with strong conviction. In short, if the current move fails next week and the risk metrics start to flash, our systematic portfolio will pivot accordingly. Until then, today looks great for Bitcoin and stocks.”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $74,117.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com