Bitcoin [BTC] continues to trade below its 2025 opening level of around $93,576, while overall momentum in the cryptocurrency market has waned as the year gradually comes to a close.
As the new year approaches, analysts are weighing the likelihood that Bitcoin will continue its sluggish performance, with the possibility that prices could fall further instead of recovering.
Bitcoin winter is still in play
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, one of the largest investment funds in the United States, has suggested that 2026 could be an “off-year” for Bitcoin.
His assessment is based on BTC’s historical four-year halving cycle. According to Timmer, the asset could retreat to a support range between $65,000 and $75,000 next year if the cycle continues to play out as it has in the past.
The four-year halving cycle he referred to reflects a prolonged rally phase, in this case about 145 months, following a reduction in rewards for Bitcoin miners.
Historically, this phase has often been followed by a broader market decline, as evidenced by long-term price charts.
Source: Trouw
Timmer noted that Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000 in October was “perfect in price and time” in line with this historical framework.
Fidelity Investments controls the second largest Bitcoin ETF offering in the US market through its FBTC US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
FBTC owns Bitcoin worth $16.73 billion, according to CoinGlass data, trailing only BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, which holds $65.57 billion.
If the bearish outlook holds, it could imply significant sell-off from this cohort of Bitcoin investors. However, FBTC investors have shown bullish behavior so far this week, with a net inflow of 179 BTC, equivalent to approximately $15.7 million.
Minimal demand in the market
The broader market has yet to witness sustained demand and has instead seen more rebalancing than real accumulation that can drive prices higher.
This dynamic helps explain why Bitcoin has remained between $85,000 and $93,000. The clarification follows a Glassnode analysis addressing reports that Bitcoin “sharks,” wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, had increased their holdings by 270,000 BTC.
Glassnode later clarified that the activity did not reflect true accumulation. Instead, it stemmed from major Bitcoin entities, holding more than 100,000 BTC, undergoing an internal portfolio realignment.
Source: Glassnode
A senior analyst at Glassnode explained:
“Portfolio shuffling occurs when large entities split or merge balances across addresses to manage custody, risk or accounting, shifting coins between cohort sizes without changing real ownership.”
While the supply of large entities shifted by about 300,000 BTC, about 270,000 BTC appeared in shark wallets.
However, the data ultimately showed a net negative balance of around 30,000 BTC, indicating that these investors likely sold Bitcoin rather than accumulating it.
Regulatory and global context
Investor caution has increased as the year draws to a close, driven by a series of regulatory and macroeconomic developments in major economies.
In the United States, the policy outlook has softened following the Federal Open Market Committee’s interest rate cuts. Similar movements have been observed in Europe. However, capital outflows associated with rising Japanese bond yields have weighed on Bitcoin sentiment.
These policy shifts and uncertainties have left markets undecided on whether to deploy capital or sit on the sidelines.
Ray Youssef, CEO of crypto super app NoOnes, provided additional context on the current environment in an email. He said,
“Different signals from major state-owned banks, uneven global policy coordination and mixed guidance on interest rate and liquidity paths through 2026 have prompted capital to take a wait-and-see approach into the year end.”
Meanwhile, Jerome de Tychey, president of Ethereum France, told AMBCrypto that he expects crypto markets to increasingly align with traditional financial markets.
“As ETFs and institutional participation increase, crypto-specific corrections are less likely, but correlation with global markets will increase.”
This shift could diminish crypto’s status as a pure inflation hedge. Still, proponents argue that the continued adoption of blockchain-based financial infrastructure remains a positive long-term development for the sector.
Final thoughts
- Fidelity’s director of Global Macro has pointed out that Bitcoin is leaving its traditional four-year cycle behind, describing 2026 as a potential “off year” or winter period.
- Demand for Bitcoin remains weak, with market activity driven more by internal rotations than actual new purchases.