The market is once again caught in a classic tug-of-war phase, as greed and FOMO battle for control.
From a technical point of view, Bitcoin [BTC] The recovery to the $70,000 level on April 6 ran straight into an established resistance zone, and the breakout attempt quickly lost steam. In the current market setup, investors seem to be quick to take profits (greed) rather than risk giving back profits (FOMO).
This behavior is particularly consistent with signals in the chain. Data from Glassnode shows that as BTC broke into the $70,000 region, realized gains per hour soared above $20 million, a clear sign that holders were using the rally as an opportunity to divide in strength. In fact, this dynamic has remained consistent since February 2026.
Technically, any move towards $70,000-$80,000 comes with scarce liquidity and steady profit-taking, limiting rallies. Bitcoin’s price chart supports this. After reaching almost $97,000 in January, BTC fell almost 40% within a month. Since then, the price has attempted to regain the $75,000 level about seven times, but each attempt failed to hold, reinforcing the idea of strong overhead resistance.
So, from both a technical and macro perspective, Bitcoin Long/short ratio turning back to negative feels logical. Traders appear to be turning cautious again, with the bears slowly re-entering and positioning themselves for a possible downtrend. As a result, the positioning around the $70,000 level seems very strategic and not random.
However, there is one important signal that may still call this story into question.
Could Changing Investor Psychology Define BTC’s Current Cycle?
A brief look at the macro background is enough to understand why traders fall short on Bitcoin.
According to the Kobeissi letter, the US military is reportedly preparing for possible attacks on Iranian energy targets. US President Donald Trump sets a “final” deadline of 8pm (ET) on Tuesday, adding a new layer of risk to already fragile market sentiment. In these types of environments, trading volatility seems more attractive than simply HODLing through macro risks.
However, market sentiment seems to tell a different story. A recent report from Santiment shows that the public still expects Bitcoin’s rally to continue, with sentiment reaching the third highest greed value in the past three months. Simply put, after BTC’s latest surge, retail investors quickly shifted back into FOMO mode.
It is striking that this shift is now becoming visible in investor psychology, with FOMO starting to drive positioning again.
According to CryptoQuant, Metaplanet has collected 5,075 BTC as part of its broader plan to acquire 210,000 Bitcoin, approximately 1% of the total supply. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs recorded an inflow of $471 million on April 6, marking the largest single-day inflow in almost three months.
All things considered, the market is now at a clear psychological crossroads. While macro risks and rising short positions point to caution, capital inflows and growing retail optimism point to underlying demand. In this context, Bitcoin’s current choppy price action looks less like weakness and more like forming a bear trap.
Final summary
- Macro uncertainty drives cautious positioning, with traders shorting as Bitcoin struggles against strong resistance.
- Rising inflows and renewed FOMO suggest underlying demand remains intact, increasing the likelihood of a potential bear trap.