As Bitcoin (BTC) retests a crucial level after breaking a bearish pattern, one analyst has suggested that the flagship crypto’s final correction before the next bull market could begin in the coming days.
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The start of ‘Final Washout’ is just days away
In an analysis Monday, market observer Ali Martinez said confirmed that Bitcoin’s final leg before the next bull run could be just around the corner, based on the flagship crypto’s behavior over the past cycle.
The analyst explained that historically, the crossover between BTC’s 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) has marked the “absolute bottom” of every major cycle since 2014.
Over the past twelve years, every time these two lines have crossed on the three-day chart has consistently signaled the beginning of the “final washout” before the next bull market begins. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin was already down 50%-72% from cycle peaks when the 50 and 200 SMAs crossed.
23-33 days after the crossover, the cryptocurrency continued its correction, tracking another 45%-52% before bottoming out. In 2022, “another lower low formed 156 days later, completing the bear structure and opening the door for the next bull market.”
Now, Bitcoin has already seen a 52% correction from the October 2025 peak, with the SMAs crossing the line on February 27. “As of today, we are exactly 30 days into this signal,” the analyst said, adding that “if history ‘rhymes,’ we are likely entering the final accumulation window of this cycle within the next three to six days.”
Martinez noted that while the final leg could be intimidating, history has shown the crossover to be the “golden opportunity” for long-term investors. Based on the 40%-50% resets, the analyst suggested two key accumulation zones: the $40,000 and $30,000 levels.
Structurally, this setup is historically in line with the last major downward move before a generational macro bottom forms. (…) The countdown to the next vertical move has begun.
Bitcoin Bear Flag Breakdown Confirmed?
After closing the week around $66,000, Bitcoin has risen to the $67,000-$68,000 area to retest a crucial level from below. The flagship crypto has been trading between $62,000 and $74,000 for almost two months, developing a bearish formation during this period.
Notably, BTC has formed a bearish flag pattern on the daily time frame, with the lower and upper limits of the formation retested multiple times since early February. After last week’s correction, the cryptocurrency returned more than 10% from its recent highs to a four-week low of $65,000 on Sunday.
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Amid this performance, Bitcoin lost the lower bound of its bear flag formation, risking a second leg to lower levels. Crypto Analyst Jelle noted that the cryptocurrency is currently retesting the formation from below after today’s upswing, which could confirm that the pattern’s support has turned into resistance if the BTC price is rejected.
Additionally, the market watcher pointed out that cryptocurrency bear market lows have historically formed below the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement levels, which could place BTC’s bottom below the $57,000 area. “Is this time different? I doubt it,” Jelle concluded.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com