Bitcoin is entering the new trading week a defined step-by-step planlike DeFi researcher and analyst Sherlockwhale, identifies four specific price levels that could determine the direction of the market. The framework is built on an extensive review of approximately 450 weeks of historical data, translating recent price action into a structured guide focused on how Bitcoin closes at the beginning and middle of the week.
Bitcoin’s weekly structure sets the stage
According to Sherlockwhale, Bitcoin ended last week near $76,000, reflecting a 7.2% increase from Monday’s opening price. While this suggests upward momentum, the internal one is structure of the weekly candle tells a more cautious story. The price climbed as high as $78,333 before retreating, dropping 1.79% on Saturday, followed by only a modest recovery on Sunday. At the weekly close, Bitcoin had reached approximately 70% of its total range.
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This detail is important because a close at this level indicates that the price remained in the upper part of its range but did not stay near its peak, leaving a visible rejection. Historical patterns analyzed by the analyst show that when Bitcoin breaks the previous week’s high but closes this way, the next week ends lower about 62% of the time.
Within this context, four price levels – $79,800, $79,116, $74,480 and $69,861 – become central to the outlook. The analyst presents them as decisive markers, to which their relevance is linked how price behaves during key checkpointsmainly closed on Mondays and Wednesdays.
The four Bitcoin price levels that define the week
On the upside, $79,800 stands out as an important threshold, being around 5% above the weekly open. Historical data cited by Sherlockwhale shows that when Monday closes above this level, the week ends on a positive note almost 89.6% of the time, rising to 95.5% in data tracked since 2021. Just below, $79,116, about 1% above the previous high of $78,333, serves as confirmation that Bitcoin remains above resistance.
Midweek performance further refines the outlook. If Bitcoin remains more than 3% above Monday’s opening price on Wednesday, historical data from 141 cases indicates an 86% chance of a positive weekly close. If the gain at that time is greater than 5%, the probability increases to 91.4% based on 93 events.
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On the other hand, $74,480 becomes crucial. A Monday that closes below this level, approximately 2% below the opening price, indicates that the earlier rally may have been a false move. If losses exceed 2% by Wednesday, the week will end in the red about 80% of the time, with recent data showing no exceptions under similar circumstances.
Finally, $69,861, just below the previous low of $70,567, represents a full range of the weekly range. Interestingly, history suggests that this is so movements often precede a reboundwith approximately 81.8% of cases turning positive for the rest of the week. According to Sherlockwhale, these four levels form a structured lens through which the week’s price action can be interpreted.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com