As XRP tries to defend a crucial support level, one analyst has called for a 30%-40% rally in the coming weeks, suggesting the altcoin could see near-term relief before it reaches its “critical inflection point.”
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XRP Defends Its ‘Lifeline’
On Friday, XRP saw a 2.5% intraday retrace to retest the $1.43 area before bouncing above the crucial $1.40 level. The altcoin has been fluctuating between $1.34 and $1.50 over the past month and recently tried to break the upper end of the range.
This week’s market rally saw the cryptocurrency rise 15% from weekend lows, hitting a one-month high of $1.60 on Tuesday. However, broader market volatility has pulled XRP back into its local reach, causing the altcoin to retest a crucial area.
Analyst ChardNerd confirmed that the altcoin is “currently defending a lifeline as it clings to support” and that he expects a continuation of what he believes will be the “critical turning point” in the coming weeks.
XRP was trading around its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $1.41, with multiple closes below and a bullish reclaim above this level in the last weekly candle.
As he explained, this is the main guardrail that the cryptocurrency must defend as the end of the week approaches, as it would pave the way for another retest and possible recovery of its $1.50 resistance and a relief rally towards two crucial levels above, the 20 EMA and 50 EMA.
“So what I’m trying to say is that XRP could potentially have some kind of relief in the coming months, towards these EMAs, which are between $1.80 and $2.00. And if it does get this relief, that will mark a very critical turning point.”
He further emphasized that XRP must defend and hold the 200 EMA as it has reclaimed the critical support level in the weekly time frame and pushed the price to its recent local highs.
Why an April rally is likely
Expanding on the potential relief, the analyst noted that XRP also had “very interesting unfolding price action” in previous cycles.
He noted that after its 2021 peak, the altcoin fell to the 200 EMA, saw a relief towards the 20 and 50 EMA before being rejected and eventually falling to the bear market low.
Now the cryptocurrency has “done exactly what we did at the previous cycle peak in 2021,” pulling back significantly from the July 2025 peak and falling back to the 200 EMA.
Notably, the altcoin saw about three months of relief after the successful backtest, which could indicate that “this is where we could see the next few months, if Bitcoin behaves.”
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Additionally, the previous relief meeting took place around March 2022, ChardNerd claimed, noting that “it doesn’t have to happen exactly the same way.” If the March relief rally does not retest the $1.80-$2.00 range in the coming week, the analyst suggested that “there is a possibility it could last a little longer than the previous cycle” and continue into April or May.
“So this is why, I think, there is still the potential to get the push to $2 and then XRP comes back to $0.80 to $0.70,” he concluded.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com