This week has further reinforced how dominant macro flows have become in driving the crypto market.
Despite the strong rally early in the second quarter that pushed Bitcoin back above the $80,000 level, the mid-second quarter rotation effectively erased these gains and pulled BTC back to the first quarter price ranges.
As a result, overall quarterly ROI briefly dropped into negative territory. Naturally, this subsequently showed a clear shift in the market structure from risk-on optimism to a more defensive, risk-off environment.
However, this move was not arbitrary or purely technical in nature.
Capital flows across global markets have been actively converted into safer and more resilient assets. A clear example of this dynamic can be seen in the US Dollar Index (DXY).
As the Middle East crisis intensified, the DXY returned to the 100 level as rising oil prices affected inflation expectations.
In this context, US President Donald Trump’s recent post obviously carries great weight.
As highlighted in the message above, President Trump confirmed that the US and Iran will sign a peace deal on June 19, in addition to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The market reaction around Bitcoin clearly reflected a shift in sentiment, with Bitcoin [BTC] Recovered $65k and pushed 2% upside.
Remarkably, the timing of this move could not have come at a better time.
The BOJ decision threatens as Bitcoin tests a macro-driven breakout
Bitcoin is increasingly driven by macro flows rather than crypto-native catalysts.
In this context, the upcoming BOJ meeting, with markets pricing in a 1.00% interest rate hike, could not have come at a better time. Historically, BOJ tightening cycles have occurred frequently coincided with sharp Bitcoin corrections as a weaker yen and ultra-loose liquidity conditions tend to fuel carry trades and risk exposure to US assets.
However, this cycle could mark a divergence thanks to the shift toward risk-averse sentiment following President Trump’s post.
The impact becomes even clearer when we look at BTC’s on-chain metrics.
As the chart shows, Bitcoin just recorded the second-largest unrealized loss in history, while realized losses remain contained, meaning most holders are still sitting on paper losses rather than selling.
This adds a new layer of persuasion to the current disagreements.
In short, the continued risk approach, combined with strong holding behavior, suggests Bitcoin can absorb volatility ahead of the upcoming BOJ and FOMC meetings, especially with BTC hovering around the $65k level.
Ultimately, macro forces, not panic selling, now determine the direction for price discovery.
Final summary
- Bitcoin movements are now mainly driven by macro events such as BOJ, FOMC and dollar strength.
- Strong holding behavior indicates limited selling pressure despite volatility.