The FIFA World Cup has become a multi-billion dollar trading event ahead of its June 11 kick-off, with traders on the prediction markets nearly divided over whether Spain or France should be treated as the team to beat in the tournament.
Polymarket data shows that Spain and France each have an implied chance of almost 16% of winning the tournament, ahead of England on around 11%, Portugal on 10% and defending champions Argentina on 9%.
Prices on Kalshi, a regulated trading platform in the US, show a similar race at the top, with Spain almost 16.5%, France 16.2%, Portugal 10.5%, England 10.1% and Argentina 8.9%.
These numbers are not predictions in the traditional sense of the word, as they reflect where traders are willing to buy and sell event contracts that pay out if a team wins the tournament.
Still, the size of the market has made the 2026 FIFA World Cup an early test of whether prediction platforms can compete with sportsbooks at one of the most watched sporting events in the world.
Polymarket’s World Cup winners market has already generated roughly $2 billion in trading volume before the start of the tournament, while Kalshi’s comparable market has surpassed $100 million.
The figures place the event among the largest sports markets yet for prediction platforms, whose rapid growth has pushed them into an area long dominated by licensed betting operators.
WK gives platforms their biggest sports test
The World Cup comes at a crucial time for Polymarket and Kalshi.
The 2026 tournament is the first men’s World Cup since the prediction markets abandoned their former bases in crypto, politics and macroeconomic events and moved into mainstream sports speculation.
The event offers the sector’s biggest sporting test yet, with a global audience, 48 teams, 104 matches and weeks of rotating stories that can be turned into tradable contracts.
Historically, sportsbooks have always offered fans the opportunity to bet on teams and players. Prediction markets are newer and add a structure closer to financial trading, where users can enter, exit, shorten or increase positions before an event resolves.
In simple terms, prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts related to future events. A contract trading at 40 cents carries a market-implied probability of 40% and pays $1 if the outcome occurs.
This means prices can move as traders react to injuries, team news, match results, tactical changes and other developments.
That flexibility is central to the strong increase in World Cup activity.
A trader who buys Spain before the opening match will not have to hold the position until the final in July. If Spain wins its group comfortably or gets a favorable knockout draw, the contract price could rise, allowing the trader to sell before the tournament ends. If a key player gets injured or the team faces a more difficult path, the position can be reduced before it reaches zero.
The same logic applies to France, Portugal, England and Argentina, where prices remain close enough to keep the market competitive. The depth of the France squad, Spain’s recent form, England’s attack, the momentum of Portugal’s Nations League and Argentina’s status as defending champions have all allowed traders to price competing items.
That has helped make the Winners Market a live trading platform rather than a static pre-tournament betting board. Prices may be adjusted after each match, press conference, injury update or disciplinary decision. The result is a tournament-long market that follows changing sentiment as the field shrinks.
However, that size does not make the market immune to bias. Prediction markets can still reflect momentum, public attention, fan loyalty, and unequal access to information.
For context, a national team with a large global following may attract more trading interest than a less popular side with a similar chance of winning. Traders can also overreact to short-term developments in a tournament where one injury, suspension or red card can redefine the path to the final.
Still, the activity shows how sports has become an important growth channel for event contracting platforms.
The Pew Research Center found that combined monthly global trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket rose from less than $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion in April 2026. That compares with about $14 billion in average monthly legal sportsbook betting in the U.S. last year.
Sports have been especially important for Kalshi, where sports have accounted for the majority of trading volume since the platform expanded beyond politics and macroeconomic events. Polymarket’s activities are spread more broadly across sports, politics and crypto, but the World Cup shows how a single global event can concentrate liquidity across a single set of contracts.
In view of this, several crypto companies, including companies related to President Donald Trump, are now trying to respond to that demand.
Exchange and wallet providers including Bitget, OKX and Gate have introduced World Cup-related products or campaigns aimed at converting global attention into trading activity.
This push reflects a broader shift in crypto marketing, with companies increasingly tying products to major cultural events rather than relying solely on token prizes or blockchain-specific narratives.
Alvin Kan, chief operating officer at Bitget Wallet, said prediction markets are becoming a new way for users to participate in global events. He declared:
“The World Cup shows why this matters: billions of people are not only watching the same moments, but also forming positions in real time, debating the outcomes and acting with conviction.”
Regulators pay attention to the boundary between trading and gambling
Meanwhile, the World Cup wave is approaching as regulators, lawmakers and government officials examine the extent to which prediction markets will be allowed to expand.
Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), while Polymarket’s main international exchange is not CFTC regulated and has generally excluded US users. Polymarket has also launched a U.S. location, although the international location remains the larger marketplace.
The distinction has become central to the policy debate. Proponents say federally regulated event contracts can bring transparency, oversight and standardized market rules to a space that already exists through offshore sportsbooks and casual betting.
Critics say sports markets are gambling products by another name and could bypass state consumer protection regimes if treated only as derivatives. Several US states have argued that the sports contracts of these prediction markets amount to sports gambling and should be regulated by their local frameworks.
However, the CFTC has countered that these platform contracts fall within its regulatory jurisdiction.
Meanwhile, these concerns extend beyond jurisdiction. As prediction markets grow, regulators are increasingly looking more closely at know-your-customer controls, market manipulation, insider trading, fraud prevention and data security.
These risks become more visible when millions of users trade contracts related to sports, politics and other events with non-public information.
While sports contracts can avoid some of the insider trading concerns surrounding elections, they still pose information risks.
Team personnel, medical staff, agents, broadcasters and others may be aware of details of injuries, tactical changes or player availability before the public. These details can influence prices, especially in highly liquid markets connected to large teams.
In response, the platforms say they have surveillance tools and market integrity systems in place to detect suspicious activity. Kalshi uses identity checks and monitoring programs. Polymarket has said it maintains a market integrity framework and has referred suspicious wallets to law enforcement in previous cases.
The World Cup will test these systems on a large scale. A 39-day, 104-match tournament gives traders a constant stream of new information and gives platforms repeated chances to show whether their markets can function despite volatility, news shocks and heavy retail participation.