Bitcoin is showing a monthly momentum signal that has appeared near several key cycle lows, raising the possibility of the current correction taking place is entering its final phase.
The setup is based on the monthly logarithmic MACD histogram, where previous Bitcoin bottoms only formed when the red bars started to fade for at least two consecutive months. The same signal can now form again, but there is one major catch.
Bitcoin MACD repeating bottom pattern
The technical outlook in question is based on the monthly candlestick time chart, but May has not yet closed and Bitcoin is still trading in a fragile zone below $76,000, after failing to hold above the $80,000 region, which it broke above earlier this month.
Technical analysis done by crypto analyst Washigorira focuses on a simple but historically significant feature consisting of two consecutive lighter red bars on Bitcoin’s monthly logarithmic MACD histogram. In previous cycles, the darker red bars in the histogram showed growing bearish momentum, while the lighter red bars indicated that downward pressure was beginning to weaken.
This same pattern appeared everywhere Bitcoin’s previous lows. Bitcoin’s monthly candlestick chart below highlights similar monthly MACD transitions in 2012, the bear market bottom in 2015, the 2019 cycle reset, and the recovery phase from late 2022 to early 2023. In both cases, Bitcoin didn’t immediately explode higher the moment the first lighter red bar appeared, but the signal showed sellers losing control of the monthly time frame.
The May closing is the real signal
Same configuration seems to be forming now again. Bitcoin’s monthly MACD histogram turned deep red in September 2025, but April 2026 produced the first lighter red bar since that turn, indicating that bearish momentum was beginning to wane.
May is in full swing and the final reading has not yet been published. If the month closes with a second consecutive lighter bar, the pattern will have repeated itself again and Bitcoin may already have bottomed. ‘If history rhymes, the worst of the disadvantages may already be behind us’ WashiGorira commented.
On the other hand, a weak close, which again creates a deep red histogram, would delay the signal and keep the bear case alive. Bitcoin’s short-term price action remains stuck between relief and weakness, and it is currently unclear how May will end. The cryptocurrency has held above the lower panic levels of $74,000 for now, but has struggled to reclaim the $80,000 zone in May.
Bitcoin does is currently struggling with outflow of Spot Bitcoin ETFs and low demand on the spot market on crypto exchanges. None of this necessarily breaks the technical histogram pattern that WashiGorira follows.
The bearish reading is that the pattern may still leave room for a final crash before a bottom is confirmed. Some technical analysts have warned that the Bitcoin price could do this still under $50,000.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com