After stalling at the key resistance at $82,000, Bitcoin has doubled its May gains, and macro uncertainty could still lead to more losses.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency extended its pullback to $76,000 on Monday, May 18, effectively wiping out this month’s 8.5% recovery gain.
Now the price action was back to the lower range of the ascending channel pattern, further opening the possibility of a correction towards the $70K-$72K support zone.
The move was not surprising, since AMBCrypto reported the $82K-$83K zone as a major turning point that could strengthen a bullish market setup or trigger a new downtrend.
Macro uncertainty increases BTC’s losses
For Nic Puckrin, macro and cross-asset analyst and founder of Coin Bureau, the pullback was more than just ‘sell-the-news’ Busy following the passage of the CLARITY Act.
In an email statement, he told AMBCrypto that:
Gold and Bitcoin have sold off at the same time, which can only mean one thing: investors are finally worried about tighter monetary conditions.
Citing the Fed Chairman’s new leadership as the main volatility driver, Puckrin added:
As Kevin Warsh begins his first week as Federal Reserve chairman, the market estimates a 73.6% chance of a rate hike in March 2027. And investors are slowly catching up to this expectation.
Expectations for interest rate cuts have a direct impact on risk sentiment in the stock, crypto and even bond markets. As a result, fears of inflation, especially if energy markets remain disrupted, could mean a pause in rate cuts, rate hikes or, worse, a recession.
In fact, the Singapore-based crypto trading agency is QCP Capital echoed a similar view and warned,
The macro background becomes less friendly. Stocks are retreating, bond yields are at new cycle peaks (US 10Y: 4.62%, 30Y: 5.14%), and USD/JPY is nearing the key 160 level at 158 to 159, where fears over intervention risk and yen carry could increase.
QCP predicted that “until clearer tariff or US-Iranian headlines emerge, crypto will likely remain within a choke point.”
For Puckrin, however, the next catalyst could be Nvidia’s Q1 earnings report, scheduled for Wednesday, May 20. Still, he agreed with QCP that the West Asia update would remain the dominant price driver.
Final summary
- BTC erased May gains as it fell to $76,000 amid an “unfriendly” macro landscape and increasing selling pressure.
- Analysts noted that the market could be putting a price on the new Fed chairman’s potential aggressive stance on rate cuts.