As Bitcoin (BTC) tries to hold $80,000 as support, some market analysts have warned of a crucial resistance area that could make or break the flagship crypto’s bullish rally.
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Bitcoin Bull Rally Meets Major Resistance
In an analysis Tuesday, market watcher Ali Martinez said marked a “critical resistance barrier that has the potential to end the recent Bitcoin bull rally” that has sent the price to its highest level in months.
He explained that BTC has been trying to clear the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), near $82,500, for three consecutive days. A breakout above this level could trigger a rally towards the $94,000 area, Martinez confirmed, while a rejection could send the price to retest the 50-day SMA around $75,000.
However, the inability to regain this level could indicate that the market is “struggling to find the follow-on volume needed for a breakout.” The analyst pointed out that a recent change in miners’ behavior could strengthen the above-mentioned area of resistance.
Over the past month, Bitcoin miners have been making steady profits, shedding more than 3,400 BTC they’ve held since the $72,000 mark to cover operating costs or lock in profits at recent highs. “This additional supply could strengthen overhead resistance,” he confirmed.
Meanwhile, retail and futures traders are “aggressively increasing their risk appetite,” with the estimated leverage ratio currently at an annual peak, suggesting the market is overextended and reliant on borrowed money.
Most of this leverage is focused on long positions, creating liquidation walls at $75,000, $73,000 and $70,000, Martinez added. He warned that if Bitcoin cannot convert the $82,500 resistance into support, “the market could attempt to flush out this leverage by testing those lower levels.”
BTC ready for another correction?
Analyst Rekt Capital offered from a macro perspective, suggesting that Bitcoin may fail to regain crucial resistance and fall to new lows in the coming months. He highlighted BTC’s breakdown from its macro triangle base around $82,500, which retested the price at the 50-month EMA.
Historically, when Bitcoin breaks out of its macro triangle, the price retests its 50-month EMA as support and bounces briefly before dropping to the bear market bottom.
“On this occasion (…) we have already recovered. But history shows that this recovery will be limited, and that we will lose the 50-month EMA as support and then convert it into resistance against the transition to a cluster below it,” the analyst confirmed.
Rekt Capital also highlighted that the 50-month EMA is roughly in line with the 2021 all-time high (ATH), which was a key resistance and support area around the early 2024 ATH rally and opened the door for the 2025 run towards the final ATH.
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As Bitcoin retests this area as support and faces strong resistance around the base of the macro triangle, the analyst claimed this recovery could be weaker, adding that history suggests the 50-month EMA support is likely to be lost and turn into resistance.
“That’s pretty compelling evidence to support the weaker rally thesis as well, because if we reject the converging area of resistance, which is the macro downtrend and the macro triangle base, then this rally will indeed be a lot smaller than the size of that rally we saw in 2024,” he concluded.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com