Analysts believe Bitcoin still has significant upside ahead, pointing out that a rare signal has appeared on a key valuation metric for the first time in about two years – and history suggests it could mark the start of a major price surge.
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A crucial level in the game
Around $82,500 Bitcoin is bumping up against its 200-day moving average, a line that traders are watching closely. If we get above that, months of downward pressure could end.
If this is not maintained, analysts warn, prices could fall back to $50,000. The stakes are high and the outcome of this test could determine Bitcoin’s price in the coming months.
However, the focus goes beyond simple price charts. A measure called the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) is on the verge of what analysts call a golden cross, a crossover event where the ratio moves above the 200-day exponential moving average.
CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 flagged the signal this weekend, calling it a ‘rep’ trend reversal signal‘ and a bullish indicator.
A golden cross between the $BTC MVRV Ratio and the 200D EMA line are just around the corner.
This signal is a representative trend reversal signal and a bullish indicator.
After last August’s dead cross, another golden cross is about to appear.
Another bullish signal for $BTC is… pic.twitter.com/13z6HvNiGA
— CW (@CW8900) May 10, 2026
One earlier golden cross in late April — when Bitcoin’s 30-day simple moving average MVRV rose above its 90-day equivalent — had already prompted the analyst to declare that Bitcoin had “completely turned into a bullish trend.”
What previous signals showed
The last time this is specific MVRV The crossover appeared just after the bottom of Bitcoin’s cycle in 2022. What followed was a 90% price increase, from about $16,300 to $31,000 in early 2023.
A second event in September 2023 preceded an even bigger move – a roughly 400% rally that eventually took Bitcoin to its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025.
These precedents fuel optimism. Data from Glassnode adds a new layer to the image. The short-term holder cost basis – the average entry price for investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days – shows a “heated” band at $92,000 and an “overheated” band at $104,000.
Based on that data, Bitcoin still has room to run before it reaches historic expanses.
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Analysts signal a bigger step forward
Several analysts also point to broader technical settings. Analyst Shib Spain noted that Bitcoin recently broke above a multi-month downtrend line on the weekly chart, a move that was amplified by a bullish MACD crossover.
“Bitcoin is huge outbreak is coming,” the analyst posted at
“Prices will go much, much higher,” the analyst wrote, adding that “something big” is on the horizon.
Featured image of Gemini, chart from TradingView