Dogecoin’s recovery from recent lows has put the memecoin in a tight resistance zone, with crypto analyst Kevin of Kev Capital TA warning that the move remains a “counter-trend rally” unless Bitcoin confirms a broader market reversal.
On a May 6 market updateKevin said Dogecoin’s recovery so far has been in line with his previous view that the asset was likely to see a recovery from deeply oversold levels. He noted that he entered a DOGE position at around $0.09 and the trade was up about 26.6% at the time of withdrawal. But he described the rally as tactical rather than decisive, repeatedly emphasizing that altcoin charts should not be analyzed in isolation as long as Bitcoin’s dominance remains high.
“Always remember that when analyzing an altcoin, the first thing to do is analyze Bitcoin and the USDT dominance chart,” he said. “From there you can also analyze the link charts. For example, Doge vs. BTC. Then you analyze the individual chart on its own, its own USD chart.”
Major Dogecoin Price Levels Now
For Dogecoin, the immediate technical focus is on the area between $0.117 and $0.125. Kevin identified $0.117 as the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement and said DOGE was already pushing at that level. Just above that, he pointed to the daily 200 EMA and 200 SMA around $0.124 to $0.125, describing the entire band as “major major resistance.”
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That zone matters because it’s where Dogecoin’s recovery begins to collide with the same kind of higher-timeframe resistance that Bitcoin is now facing. Kevin said BTC technically remains in a counter-trend move as it pushes into the $82,000 to $87,000 region, while USDT’s dominance is approaching its previously highlighted target zone of 6.8% to 6.6%. In his framework, that combination means the crypto market is approaching a point where the recovery confirms strength or begins to fade.
“If this is a counter-trend rally, we’re really in that counter-trend rally for a long time,” he said. “If something else happens now and we get back into an uptrend on a higher time frame, we’ll break the four-year cycle narrative of having to decline in the midyear to the fourth quarter. We’re doing it now.”
Kevin said the bullish scenario would require Bitcoin to break towards $95,000 to $100,000, then retest and hold the major moving averages and Fibonacci levels as support. Until that happens, he argued, the more conservative technical interpretation is that Bitcoin and the altcoin market are still on a recovery rally within a larger corrective structure.
For Dogecoin specifically, sustained pressure above the first resistance band could open the door to a higher target range between $0.136 and $0.159. Kevin described that range as even tougher resistance, combining the 0.703 Fibonacci level with the gold pocket. He said DOGE has previously found resistance in that region, making it an important zone to watch if the rally continues.
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The analyst also pointed out the momentum risk. Dogecoin’s daily RSI had reached around 81, a level he described as rare in recent years. While he acknowledged that the RSI can still move higher in strong trends, he said DOGE is now approaching conditions where a pullback is increasingly likely, especially as it pushes into major Fibonacci and moving average resistance.
“Every time you’ve ever gotten into these zones, and again, 81 is high. You can go higher, right? You can go in the mid-80s, the 90s,” he said. “But remember: you are very high on the RSI here. You will probably prepare for some kind of setback again in the coming days.”
That does not mean that Kevin presented the rally as weak. He highlighted Dogecoin’s money flow as a constructive signal, saying it had moved back into green territory from “very deep red” after a prolonged bearish trend. According to him, this indicates that real capital is returning to assets.
Yet his core message was risk management. If DOGE rejects near $0.117 to $0.125, he said traders should keep an eye on whether the asset can hold the key four-hour moving averages in a pullback. A deeper breakdown into the $0.05 to $0.06 area wouldn’t be his base case in the near term, but he said that zone would be an area where he would consider dollar-cost averaging into a larger position.
For now, Dogecoin has made a sharp recovery. The next test is whether it can turn that rebound into a trend shift – and according to Kevin, that answer still depends on Bitcoin first.
At the time of writing, DOGE was trading at $0.11143.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com