XRP is trading near the top of its month-long consolidation band, with its price stuck between around $1.35 and $1.45. As April nears its end – just six days left until the month closes – will the XRP price rise before the deadline, or will it sink and cause a faster downward move?
Monthly Breakout or Breakdown?
In a new technical update shared on social media, analyst Bull Winkle says the next big confirmation for the XRP price will come from how it behaves on the monthly time frame. According to according to Winkle, bulls need a monthly close above $1.90.
He describes that level as more than just an arbitrary resistance area. He describes it as a ‘hold’ signal in the demand zone and also as a retracement of the 2021 resistance level, which now acts as support.
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If the XRP price can reach $1.90 on a monthly close, Winkle argues that this paves the way for retests higher up the chart – specifically opening the door to $2.90 revisits.
That bullish scenario contains significant recovery math. If the XRP price rises to $1.90 from the current trading level of $1.43 before the April close, it would represent a recovery of approximately 32%. Furthermore, there is a potential 102% rally to the $2.90 area.
On the other hand, Winkle lays out what would count as a clear crisis for bears. He says the most decisive bearish signal would be a monthly close below $1.27.
According to him, that would pave the way for a faster move towards $1, with the potential for an Elliott Wave C-style correction that could take the XRP price into the broader range of $0.60 to $0.75. That bearish estimate would be severe: it would represent a decline of approximately 58% from the current trading range.
What the XRP price needs next
While these price levels dominate, Winkle also highlighted the momentum context using the relative strength index (RSI) indicator.
He notes that at age 47, the monthly RSI shows no divergence in either direction yet. To him, this means that the market has not yet reached a point where the next step according to the monthly lineup is completely ‘high conviction’.
Instead, the RSI needs to do something more decisive: either bounce strongly above 55 to confirm a bullish phase, or push below 40 with a trajectory towards the 30 area, which it describes as a capitulation-type bottom.
That brings the focus to the immediate battlefield. Winkle’s summary of where the XRP price stands is clear: the $1.27 to $1.43 range is where the outcome is likely to be determined.
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In addition to the chart levels and the RSI, Winkle pointed to a separate signal that he said already strengthens the case for a potential uptrend: something on the supply side, rather than purely technical.
In another afterhe highlighted that “seven billion
Once that supply disappears – whether through cold wallets, institutional custody or longer-term holding structures – he believes the immediate downward pressure on the XRP price could diminish.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com