Joao Wedson, popular market analyst and founder of analytics platform Alphractal, has shared a cautionary insight about the Bitcoin market regarding possible developments with the Binance exchange reserves.
Binance BTC Reserves at Risk – Possible Deep Bear Market?
The Bitcoin market has been in a bear phase for the past six months, characterized by geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainties. During this time, the leading cryptocurrency has struggled to establish a sustained uptrend while continually absorbing waves of corrective price action. During the most recent wave, Bitcoin prices returned to around $65,000, resulting in a net loss of 5.14% over the past seven days. Since then, the market has undergone a bit of consolidation and is currently trading around $66,000.
The realized price of Binance Reserve is ~$60,490. This is the average cost basis of Binance’s entire BTC reserve. Below this level, most of that reserve goes underwater. It happened earlier in 2022. The reserve remained in the red for months during the bear market. But… pic.twitter.com/z6KsQMoQZe
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) March 28, 2026
According to Joao WedsonThis recent decline brings Bitcoin closer to a key support level, namely the Binance Reserve Realized Price, which represents the average cost basis of BTC coins held on the exchange. Notably, this benchmark currently stands at $60,490, which is just 9% of the current price level. A drop below this threshold would push a significant portion of Binance’s holdings into unrealized losses, potentially weakening market sentiment and increasing the risk of selling pressure, especially given Binance’s position as the world’s largest crypto exchange.
Wedson notes that the alleged situation occurred during the 2022 bear market, in which the exchange’s reserve held unrealized losses for months. The overall historical trend recognizes the Binance Reserve Realized price as a key support level, the loss of which would expose the bear market to lower price levels and extend broader losses. In this case, the initial support target is at $54,000, which represents the generally realized price level. However, significant opportunities remain at lower levels as Bitcoin has previously experienced bear market corrections ranging from 70% to 80% from the cycle peak. For context, current levels are just 52% away from the current all-time high of $126,100.
Bitcoin price overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,681, a modest gain of 1.01% over the past 24 hours, but still down 1.2% on the monthly time frame. Looking ahead, Coincodex analyst projections point to a potential upside, with forecasts placing BTC at $74,187 within the next five days and around $72,426 within the next five days. If this materializes, it would be a sign of renewed bullish momentum and a possible shift in market sentiment.