Bitcoin’s underlying structure continues to strengthen. In the early hours of Tuesday, the asset briefly regained $76,000, a level last seen on February 4, extending the recovery momentum.
At the heart of this step is a shift in supply dynamics. On-chain data shows a continued slowdown in Bitcoin inflows to centralized exchanges – key locations where selling pressure typically materializes. This trend indicates a reduced intention to sell across the market.
Long-term holders are tightening supply at key levels
Long-term holders have emerged as the dominant force behind Bitcoin [BTC] improving the foundations.
Data from Alpharactal Tracking Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) – a metric used to measure whether older coins are being issued – shows that long-term holders have remained largely inactive. In fact, the older offerings remain off the market.
More specifically, this inactivity has pushed holding behavior to four-year extreme levels last seen in 2022, a period that preceded a strong bullish phase.
This reflects a clear shift in belief, with investors choosing to hold shares rather than distribute, typically a signal that expected returns outweigh current sales incentives.
The Binary CDD, a supply-adjusted variant of the metric, confirms this trend. Long-term bond payouts remain minimal, reinforcing the view that structural selling pressure remains limited.
This tighter supply situation coincided with a 12.84% price increase since March 9, supporting the broader uptrend.
Supply conditions remain supportive despite the increase in the ESA
From a supply perspective, market conditions remain constructive, albeit not without nuance. The Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) has risen to 0.13, following an upward trend over the past two days.
Under normal circumstances, a rising ESR (indicating a greater proportion of Bitcoin being held on exchanges) would indicate increasing selling pressure. However, the current price action tells a different story.
Bitcoin’s price has continued to rise alongside the ESR, creating a deviation from typical behavior. This does not indicate distribution signaling, but suggests that foreign exchange inflows may not translate into immediate sales, but instead points to a more complex repositioning of supply.
A closer look at the foreign exchange reserves provides further clarity. The total amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges continues to decline, indicating that the broader trend still favors supply contraction.
This dynamic limits the amount of readily available liquidity for sell-offs, reducing downside risk even if short-term sentiment changes.
The demand is showing early signs of strength
While supply continues to tighten, continued increases depend on demand keeping pace.
Institutional flows provide an important signal. According to SosoValueSpot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded six consecutive days of net inflows since March 9, matching the start of the current rally.
These inflows total approximately $968.94 million, marking the longest accumulation streak to date in 2025. This shift signals renewed institutional participation and stronger conviction at current price levels.
While this demand has not yet triggered a decisive breakout, continued inflows could provide the necessary momentum to break the $75,000 resistance zone and establish a stronger uptrend.
Final summary
- Long-term Bitcoin holders are increasing their conviction, which is a sign of confidence in short-term upside potential.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded six consecutive days of inflows, marking their longest buying streak in more than a year.