Bitcoin’s recent price action may be showing the first signs of The relief as a closely watched indicator linked to US demand has just changed direction. The Coinbase Premium Gap has turned positive again after nearly ten weeks of persistently negative numbers, a period that coincided with Bitcoin’s decline from around $95,000 to less than $65,000 in February.
Coinbase Premium turns positive
The Coinbase Premium Gap, which measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase, the premier exchange for US-based institutional and retail investors, and its price on offshore platforms like Binance, remained in negative territory throughout Bitcoin’s correction from $95,000 to the mid-$60,000s.
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When the Coinbase Premium Gap is negative, it usually means that traders in the United States are selling Bitcoin at a faster pace than buyers are stepping in. A positive gap indicates the opposite dynamics of demand from US investors, causing Coinbase prices to rise relative to the global market price.
Notably, the metric entered a sustained negative zone on January 1 and remained there through March 7, a period when US spot demand was largely absent among crypto investors.
At its worst, the gap reached -175 on February 2, coinciding with the most severe phase of Bitcoin’s price crash. At the time of writing, the Coinbase Premium Gap has now turned positive, with a value of +25.4 according to data shared by CryptoQuant analyst @IT_TECH_PL. The reversal of the Coinbase Premium Gap from a low of -175 to a positive value is the first step in a meaningful change in market structure.
Graph image of X. Source: @IT_TECH_PL
The current reading, while early and modest relative to the depth of the previous negative regime, is the first consistent sign that the U.S. Spot demand may return to Bitcoin. It shows that those same participants may be slowly accumulating Bitcoin again compared to the rest of the world. However, the broader structure of Bitcoin’s price action still leaves room for further downside before a final bottom is formed.
Bitcoin could still fall to $50,000 before the bottom
Although a few signals on the chain slowly become constructive, A few analysts are cautious before declaring the broader correction over. A technical analysis from crypto analyst Ted Pillows points to a longer-term technical indicator that has always coincided with Bitcoin bottoms.
According to his observation, the last two major bear market lows were below the 300-week exponential moving average (300W EMA). In both cases, Bitcoin fell more than 15% below the indicator before reaching the final bottom.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @TedPillows On X
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Bitcoin’s 300-week EMA is currently around $57,100. Applying the same pattern would be a possible move to approximately $50,000, which represents a decline of approximately 15% below the indicator. Nevertheless, this projection does not guarantee that Bitcoin will reach that level again before a bottom forms.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView