Bitcoin [BTC] saw new demand on Friday March 13th. AMBCrypto reported that Bitcoin Spot ETFs saw positive inflows of 570 BTC that day, worth $41.9 million. This likely contributed to the leading crypto’s rally to the $73.9K level, with the crypto nearly testing last week’s local high of $74K.
Ethereum [ETH] also saw significant inflows and the crypto market cap rose 4.38% at the high of the day. Unfortunately for the bulls, tackling local highs gave market participants a great opportunity to book profits, pushing BTC prices back towards $70,000.
In one message on Xcrypto analyst Axel Adler Jr noted that the 30-day Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 10%. It matched the extreme pessimism seen during the COVID and LUNA crashes.
This may or may not mark the absolute bottom of this cycle, but the deeply frightening sentiment helped explain why each rally was aggressively sold.
However, from a structural perspective, Bitcoin has room to rise further. In fact, the Fibonacci retracement levels plotted on the daily time frame above showed that $89.8K remains a valid target for a relief.
However, investors remain skeptical of the likelihood of a market recovery, analyst said Donkerfost. The funding rate has been negative for most of March. Each price bounce, including the latest to $73.9K, has also been met with significant selling pressure.
Negative funding rates peaked on March 10 and 11, highlighting that the majority of the market had a bearish bias.
Impact of midterm elections on Bitcoin
That’s not all as it seems Binance research2026 could be a difficult year for the markets. They wrote,
In midterm election years, political uncertainty has historically resulted in an average S&P 500 decline from peak to trough of about 16%, making this the weakest year in the four-year presidential cycle.
This also has consequences for Bitcoin. Since 2014, the average annual BTC return in midterm election years has been -56%. If this trend materializes this year, you can expect Bitcoin to fall to $39,000 by the end of the year.
The report also underlined the post-election year opportunities. BTC has recorded an average annual gain of 54% in the three years following the elections.
Final summary
- Current market sentiment is very pessimistic, with any wave of short-term bullish strength being met with significant selling pressure.
- A much deeper price decline could occur in 2026 if historical trends continue, but this would still present an opportunity for investors next year.